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中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (16): 259-266.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb14110133

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

天水地区暴雨特征、环流形势及概念模型分析

王小龙,朱拥军,李 悦,强玉柱   

  1. (甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃天水 741000)
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-20 修回日期:2015-03-14 接受日期:2015-03-25 出版日期:2015-07-27 发布日期:2015-07-27
  • 通讯作者: 王小龙
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局预报司业务专项“西北区强对流预报预警业务平台建设”(QDLYJ2013-001)。

Characteristics and Corresponding Circulation Form of Heavy Rainfall in Tianshui and the Conceptual Model Analysis

Wang Xiaolong, Zhu Yongjun, Li Yue, Qiang Yuzhu   

  1. (Tianshui Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province, Tianshui Gansu 741000)
  • Received:2014-11-20 Revised:2015-03-14 Accepted:2015-03-25 Online:2015-07-27 Published:2015-07-27

摘要: 为提高天水地区暴雨预报及服务能力,利用1965—2011年天水地区地面观测资料以及Micaps实况资料,运用统计学方法、天气学原理以及中尺度分析技术,对天水地区暴雨进行分析。结果表明:天水地区暴雨近47年来年均发生频次约为2.38次,呈略减少趋势,幅度为每10年下降0.135次,但变化趋势不明显;暴雨发生时间主要分布在每年的4—10月,集中在7—8月;暴雨空间分布自渭北区—河谷区—关山区依次增多;天水地区暴雨分布与地形有一定的关系;天水暴雨的主要环流形势有4种,即:西低东高型、副高西北侧西南气流型、低涡切变型以及副高控制型;天水地区最常见的暴雨环流形势是副高西北侧西南气流型,西低东高型、低涡切变型以及副高控制型暴雨所占比例相对较少;各形势下的暴雨主要影响系统、动力以及热力条件各有不同。

关键词: 细胞同步化, 细胞同步化, S期, 羟基脲

Abstract: In order to improve the forecasting and service ability of heavy rainfall in Tianshui area, based on data of surface observation and Micaps observation in Tianshui from 1965 to 2011, the author analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics, structure characteristics of heavy rainfall in Tianshui area, using statistical methods, the principle of synoptic meteorology and the mesoscale analysis technology. The results showed that the frequency of heavy rainfall was about 2.38 times per year with a slight downtrend of 0.135 times per decade; however, there had no significant trend change in the past 47 years. The heavy rainfall mainly occurred from April to October, especially in July and August. Heavy rainfall frequency increased from Weibei area to Hegu area and Guanshan area. The spatial distribution of heavy rainfall had good relationship with topographic feature. According to the corresponding circulation form, heavy rainfall could be roughly divided into four kinds, which were named as west low east high pattern, southwest airflow around subtropical high northwest edge pattern, low vortex variant cutting pattern, and subtropical high control pattern, respectively. In general, the southwest airflow around subtropical high northwest edge pattern played a dominant part. The other three patterns of heavy rainfall accounted for relatively a small part in the total rainfall. Moreover, the corresponding main weather systems and configuration, heavy rainfall area, and physical indicators varied significantly under the different circulation forms.