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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (16): 250-258.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15010051

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

1958—2013年山西降水的季节变化及统计特征

张祎玮1,李 芬2,郝智文3,张岳军3   

  1. (1南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京 210044；2山西省气象服务中心,太原 030002；3山西省气象科学研究所,太原 030002）
  • 收稿日期:2015-01-09 修回日期:2015-04-15 接受日期:2015-03-23 出版日期:2015-07-27 发布日期:2015-07-27
  • 通讯作者: 李 芬
  • 基金资助:
    山西省气象科研项目“ENSO对山西旱涝灾害的影响研究”(SXKYBQH20147828)；山西省科技攻关项目“基于海气耦合模式的降尺度山西干旱预测研究”(20130312012)。

Seasonal Variation and Statistical Characteristics of Shanxi’s Rainfall from 1958 to 2013

Zhang Yiwei1, Li Fen2, Hao Zhiwen3, Zhang Yuejun3   

  1. (1College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;2Shanxi Meteorological Service Center, Taiyuan 030002;3Shanxi Province Meteorological Science Research Institute, Taiyuan 030002)
  • Received:2015-01-09 Revised:2015-04-15 Accepted:2015-03-23 Online:2015-07-27 Published:2015-07-27

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摘要： 为了研究56年来山西旱涝的演变特征，系统分析山西地区旱涝灾害的季节变化，基于山西38个气象观测站1958—2013年的逐月降水观测资料，应用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检测和Morlet小波等方法，分析了山西降水的气候变化。结果表明：（1）56年来山西年平均降水量为377.6~600.2 mm，降水从北至南递增，中部小东西部大，且东部大于西部。（2）春季各地降水为55.7~107.4 mm，从北至南增加，北中部呈经向分布，南部为纬向分布；夏季降水为230.1~355.6 mm，大值区集中在东部；秋季降水为76.6~157.7 mm，纬向分布特征明显，从北至南递增，大值区位于东南部；冬季降水为5.1~24.4 mm，分布同春季降水类似。（3）山西年降水随时间呈显著下降趋势，下降幅度为12.6 mm/10 a；四季降水除冬季小幅增加外，春夏秋均有不同程度的下降。（4）山西年降水在1967年发生了显著突变，春季突变年份为1965、1982、1992、2002年，夏季突变年份为1977年，秋季突变年份为1969、2007年，冬季突变年份为1971、1980、1988、1991年。（5）山西年降水在不同时间尺度上存在3个周期，分别为7、15和26年；春季降水存在2个周期，分别为7和24年；夏季存在3个周期，分别为4、8和18年；秋季存在2个周期，分别为2和8年；冬季存在2个周期，分别为4和15年。

关键词: 基准地价评估, 基准地价评估, 问题, 解决途径, 甘谷县

Abstract: This paper aims to study the evolution characteristics of Shanxi’ s droughts & floods and analyze their seasonal variation in a systematic way. Based on each month’ s rainfall data of 38 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 1958 to 2013, the author used linear trend estimation, Mann- Kendall and Morlet wavelet analysis methods, to analyze the climate characteristics of Shanxi’ s rainfall. The results showed that: (1) Shanxi’ s rainfall varied from 377.6 mm to 600.2 mm from 1958 to 2013, it increased progressively from the north to the south, was less in the central than in the east & west, and more in the east than the west; (2) in spring, the rainfall range was 55.7-107.4 mm, increasing from north to south, had longitudinal distribution in north-central and zonal distribution in south; in summer, the rainfall range was 230.1-355.6 mm, high values were concentrated in east; in autumn, the rainfall range was 76.6-157.7 mm, had obvious zonal distribution feature, high values were concentrated in southeast; in winter, the rainfall range was 5.1- 24.4 mm, the distribution feature was just like spring; (3) Shanxi’ s annual rainfall had a clear decreasing trend in the 56 years, the range was 12.6 mm/10 a; for the four seasons, the rainfall had a small increasing trend in winter, while the rainfall in spring, summer and autumn all had a decreasing trend; (4) Shanxi’ s annual rainfall had a significant mutation in 1967, the spring mutation years were 1965, 1982, 1992 and 2002, the summer mutation year was 1977, the autumn mutation years were 1969 and 2007, the winter mutation years were 1971, 1980, 1988 and 1991; (5) Shanxi’ s annual rainfall had 3 cycles: 7 years, 15 years and 26 years; Shanxi’ s spring rainfall had 2 cycles: 7 years and 24 years; Shanxi’ s summer rainfall had 3 cycles: 4 years, 8 years and 18 years; Shanxi’ s autumn rainfall had 2 cycles: 2 years and 8 years; Shanxi’ s winter rainfall had 2 cycles: 4 years and 15 years.