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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (23): 202-209.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15030048

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

孟定盆地 1961—2008年日照时数变化特征分析与预测

程清平,王平,李永军,刘红楠   

  1. 福建师范大学地理科学学院,云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,云南南滚河耿马管理局,云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院
  • 收稿日期:2015-03-07 修回日期:2015-07-12 接受日期:2015-05-29 出版日期:2015-08-20 发布日期:2015-08-20
  • 通讯作者: 王平
  • 基金资助:
    云南省特色优势学科群建设项目 “低纬高原地理环境与区域发展” ； 云南南滚河自然保护区综合科学考察项目。

Analysis of Sunshine Duration Changes in Mengding Basin from 1961 to 2008 and Trend Prediction

程清平,, and   

  • Received:2015-03-07 Revised:2015-07-12 Accepted:2015-05-29 Online:2015-08-20 Published:2015-08-20

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摘要： 为了更好地利用孟定盆地光照资源，依据孟定气象站1961—2008年逐月日照时数观测数据，通过采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验、谐波分析、R/S分析和均生函数预测模型等，分析了孟定盆地48年来日照时数变化特征，并预测了未来变化趋势。结果表明：年日照时数呈显著减少趋势，倾向率为-94.64h/10年，48年来减少了454.3h，雨季对全年日照时数减少贡献最大，年和各季日照时数年代际变化均呈减少趋势；除冬季外，年和其余各季日照时数均于1990—1999年突破α=0.01的临界线-2.58，呈显著的突变减少趋势，冬季5年的变化周期十分显著；蒸发量的显著减少和相对湿度的增加可能是导致日照时数减少的主要原因；2009—2023年日照时数与过去变化趋势一致，将呈减少趋势。

关键词: 陕北白绒山羊, 陕北白绒山羊, 不同饲养方式, 生产性能, 补饲

Abstract: In order to better utilize light resources in Mengding basin, the author adopted monthly sunshine duration data from the meteorological station in Mengding basin from 1961 to 2008, used the linear trend method, harmonic analysis, Mann Kendall test, R/S analysis and forecast model of average growing function to analyze the changes of sunshine duration and its future trend of Mengding basin in recent 48 years. The study suggested that the annual sunshine duration presented a trend of decrease, the change rate was -94.64 h per decade, decreased 454.3 h in recent 48 years, the largest contribution to the annual sunshine duration decrease was the rainy season, annual and seasonal sunshine duration showed a trend of decrease. Except winter, the annual sunshine duration and that of the other seasons from 1980 to 1999 broke the -2.58 borderline and the winter mutation decreased significantly with the change cycle of 5 years. The significantly decreased evaporation capacity and the increase of relative humidity were the main reasons for the decrease of sunshine duration. Sunshine duration could still show a trend of significant reduction from 2009 to 2023.