欢迎访问《中国农学通报》,

中国农学通报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (17): 102-107.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16090058

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

庆阳市污染天气预报思路的建立

韩 晶,曹彦超,张 峰   

  1. (甘肃省庆阳市气象局,甘肃庆阳 745000)
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-12 修回日期:2017-05-11 接受日期:2017-01-16 出版日期:2017-06-16 发布日期:2017-06-16
  • 通讯作者: 韩晶
  • 基金资助:
    庆阳市气象局科技项目“庆阳市重污染天气机理及预报预警技术方法”(qyqx201504)。

The Establishment of Pollution Weather Prediction Method in Qingyang

Han Jing, Cao Yanchao, Zhang Feng   

  1. (Qingyang Meteorological Bureau, Qingyang Gansu 745000)
  • Received:2016-09-12 Revised:2017-05-11 Accepted:2017-01-16 Online:2017-06-16 Published:2017-06-16

摘要: 为了提高庆阳市空气污染预报水平,利用多年环境空气质量和气象观测资料,分析各气象因子对空气污染指数API的影响,采用逐步回归的方法建立预报方程。结果表明:污染天气主要出现在冬季,其次为春季。冬季的API与除稳定度外的其余气象因子相关性较好,春、夏、秋、冬四季以及全年的API与温度、气压、降水和不稳定能量的相关性最好。建立的预报方程对夏、秋、冬三季和全年的预报效果较为准确,而对春季预报效果相对较差。实际预报中再结合具体污染源监测和相似天气分析,最终确定庆阳市本地污染天气预报的综合评估结果。本研究为庆阳市污染天气过程的预警、预测及其综合防治提供科学依据。

关键词: 海岛棉, 海岛棉, 不同开花期, 种子油分性状, 种子物理性状

Abstract: This paper established a pollution weather prediction method that suitable in Qing yang city, based on the correlation analysis of air pollution data, monitored by the environmental protection authorities, and Surface and upper-air Meteorological Observational data. The method was: shift the Meteorological parameters which have a high correlation with the Air Pollutant Factors (API), then use the shifted meteorological parameter data build up regression prediction equations. The paper verified the established method through comparing the calculation and the monitoring air pollution data, the results showed that the established equation calculate results were comparatively accurate for the summer, autumn, winter and the whole year air pollution prediction, but had a poor accuracy in spring.