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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (10): 89-94.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb18110047

所属专题： 耕地保护

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

鹤壁市粮食耕地人口承载力评价

吴荣涛1, 夏俊康1,2, 朱嘉伟1, 吴昆霖1, 张超2   

  1. 1.河南农业大学资源与环境学院;2.河南省国土资源调查规划院
  • 收稿日期:2018-11-13 修回日期:2019-03-20 接受日期:2018-12-24 出版日期:2019-04-03 发布日期:2019-04-03
  • 通讯作者: 夏俊康
  • 基金资助:
    国土资源部科研公益项目“高标准基本农田建设基础信息获取技术集成应用”(201411022)。

Population carrying capacity evaluation of grain cultivated land in Hebi

  • Received:2018-11-13 Revised:2019-03-20 Accepted:2018-12-24 Online:2019-04-03 Published:2019-04-03

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摘要： 土地承载力评价是优化国土空间开发格局,制定经济社会发展政策的基础,而耕地是土地的精华,其产品——粮食在人类生存发展中有着更为基础的作用,我国人多、地少、粮紧,粮食安全问题始终是重大战略问题,开展耕地人口承载力研究有着重要意义。近年来,随着人口增加、经济社会发展、生活水平提高,鹤壁市人地关系发生了显著变化。[方法]本文借助土地资源承载力模型分析了鹤壁市耕地人口承载力现状,[结果]发现2006-2016年耕地粮食产量能够完全满足全市人口需求,并有一定盈余；对于2017-2030年耕地人口承载力状况,本文设定了温饱型、小康型、富裕型三种消费标准,通过对人口、耕地变化趋势的线性回归分析,发现在温饱水平、小康水平下耕地不超载,而在富裕水平下轻微超载,[结论 ]此分析说明未来一个时期保护耕地数量、提高耕地质量仍然具有重大的现实意义。

关键词: 耕地利用, 耕地利用, 效率评价, 数据包络模型, 视窗分析, 长株潭

Abstract: To study the population carrying capacity of grain cultivated land in Hebi City at present and in the future, the population and grain production in Hebi City were predicted through linear regression analysis, and three food consumption levels were set up, including subsistence, well-off and richness. Based on this, the cultivated land grain population of Hebi City was evaluated with land resources carrying capacity model. The results showed that the grain output of cultivated land in 2006-2016 could fully meet the population demand of the whole city and also had a certain surplus. In 2017- 2030, the grain population carrying capacity of cultivated land will not overload in the food consumption level of subsistence and well-off, and there will be a certain amount of grain surplus, which can feed 405000 people and 163300 people extra respectively; in 2017- 2030, the carrying capacity of cultivated land will slightly overload in the food consumption level of richness, and there will be a small shortage in grain supply of 14200-15000 t. Thus, it is of great significance to protect cultivated land quantity and improve cultivated land quality and grain yield in Hebi City in the future.

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