关键词: 甘篮型油菜, 甘篮型油菜, 测产, 取样测数法, 合并测产法, 理论产量, 实收产量, 精确度

Abstract: 【OBJECTIVE】Wuchuan County of Inner Mongol lies in north of Yinshan Mountain, where is warm-cool droughty zone and agro-pastoral ecotone, and which is fit production region of spring wheat and naked oats. Because of annual variation of climate, the crop yield is low and unstable. The practices may be taken to mitigate disasters and climate risks by analysis between climate and yield. 【METHOD】Depending on the previous work, such as yield data, growth season observation, and meteorologic data, the correlation between yields and the average temperature, total hours of sunshine, and total precipitation monthly was analyzed and the pattern including multi-factors was developed to assess crop yields. 【RESULTS】The result showed that the yields of spring wheat and naked oats were negatively related to the monthly average temperature and the sum of them; the yield was positively related to the monthly precipitation and their sum.; and the yield didn’t have distinct relation to the monthly sunshine hours. Then a prediction model was made for the crop yields through multi factors analysis of regression, and which could be used assess the crop yield of Wuchuan. 【CONCLUSION】All the works showed that the climatic risk for wheat and naked oats yield would increase as climate become warmer and more drought at Wuchuan.