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中国农学通报 ›› 2009, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (10): 220-227.

所属专题: 水稻 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响

江敏,金之庆,石春林,葛道阔   

  • 收稿日期:2009-02-23 修回日期:2009-03-19 出版日期:2009-05-20 发布日期:2009-05-20

Gradual Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production in Fujian Province

JIANG Min ,Jin Zhi Qing, ,   

  • Received:2009-02-23 Revised:2009-03-19 Online:2009-05-20 Published:2009-05-20

摘要: 摘要:将福建省划分为三个水稻种植区,选取19个样点,采用近5年(2000-2004年)中逢单年份的产量进行CERES-Rice模型参数的调试,逢双年份的产量用于检验模型在研究区域的适用性;利用GISS GCM Transient Run 的输出值生成了每个样点2030及2050年的气候变化情景;在各情景文件下运行CERES-Rice模型,并将模拟结果与当前气候情景(BASE情景)下的模拟值进行比较,再结合蒸散比(β)、产量波动系数(F)等指标,定量评价了未来气候渐变过程对福建省水稻生产的影响;在此基础上提出了适应气候渐变的若干可能对策。研究结果表明:在未来气候变化过程中,(1)研究区域水稻生长季的土壤水分条件将变得不如目前湿润;(2)研究区域早稻及单季稻生育期都将不同程度的缩短,后季稻2050情景下有所延长;(3)闽东南及闽西北双季稻区产量在未来两种气候情景下均表现为减产,且减产幅度随温度升高而加大。闽西北山地气候的单季稻区表现为增产;(4)当前闽东南水稻的稳产性最差,闽西北双季稻区的稳产性较好。未来气候变化中水稻稳产性将变差;(5)未来两种气候情景下福建省水稻总产将随着温度的升高而减少。

Abstract: Abstract: Fujian Province is divided into three paddy rice planting areas with 19 sampling points been chosen. In the past 5 years from 2000 to 2004, yielding on odd years has been used to commission the CERES-Rice module parameter while yielding on even years has been used to check the module’s adaptability in the research area. The climate change of each sampling point in 2030 and 2050 has been generated referring to the output of GISS GCM Transient Run. CERES-Rice nodule has been run under all situations. The spice stimulations has been compared with that of the current climate and together with transpiration ration (β) and fluctuation of grain yielding (F), quantity analyzing is made to introduce the influence of gradual change of climate has on the production of rice in Fujian province; and based on this, certain possible solutions are forwarded. The research shows that in the process of climate change in the future, (1) the soil during the growth season of the rice in the research area would be less moist; (2) the production period of the early rice and single cropping rice would be shortened more or less while that of the late season rice would be prolonged in the climate situation of 2050; (3) the yielding of double cropping rice in southeast and northwest Fujian province would be lessened in both two climate situations in 2030 and 2050 with the production reduction rate increases when the temperature increases; and the yielding of single cropping rice in the mountainous areas of northwest Fujian province may enjoy a production enhancement; (4) as for the stability of yielding, currently those in the southeast of Fujian province is the worst and in the double cropping area in northwest Fujian is better; and the yielding will be less stable in the future climate change; (5) the total yield of rice in Fujian province will be decreased with the increase of temperature in both two future climate situations.