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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2010, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (4): 310-313.

所属专题： 水稻

• 农业科技信息 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于产量潜力预测的中国水稻单产分析

蔡承智1,梁颖2,万怀韬3   

  • 收稿日期:2009-09-24 修回日期:2009-11-23 出版日期:2010-02-20 发布日期:2010-02-20

Analyses of Rice Yield in China Based on the Projection of Yield Potential

  • Received:2009-09-24 Revised:2009-11-23 Online:2010-02-20 Published:2010-02-20

PDF (PC)

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摘要：

本文从水稻三个方面的产量潜力分析了我国水稻单产不同时期最高增产幅度：光能利用率潜力、历年产量演变趋势外推潜力、AEZ（农业生态区划）模型计算的我国水稻单产潜力。指出我国不同时期水稻单产的最高年增幅为：1977年以前10%、1980年以前9%、1986年以前8%、1990年以前7%、1996年以前6%和2003年以前5%。任何高于以上增幅的水稻品种或栽培技术都只能是局部推广的或有统计误差的。这对指导我国水稻生产具有参考意义。

关键词: FISH, FISH, GISH, ISH, 分子细胞遗传学

Abstract:

In this paper, maximum increase of rice yield in different times in China was analyzed from the following three aspects: the potential of light use efficiency, the tendency of yield variation in the past and yield potential by Chinese farming systems zoning based on AEZ model. Maximum increase of rice yield in different times in China was by 10% before 1977, by 9% before 1980, by 8% before 1986, by 7% before 1990, by 6% before 1996 and by 5% before 2003. Any rice cultivar whose yield increase by over above rate must be narrowly extended or untruly statistical, so does any cultivation of rice. The result is valuable to rice production in China.