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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (18): 50-56.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-2779

所属专题： 小麦； 农业气象

• 农学 农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

陕西省冬小麦干热风分布特征及预测研究

屈振江 郑小华 李星敏   

  • 收稿日期:2012-08-13 修回日期:2012-10-10 出版日期:2013-06-25 发布日期:2013-06-25
  • 基金资助:
    陕西省“13115”科技创新工程公共服务平台建设项目

The Distribution Characteristics and Forecast of Dry-Hot-Wind of Winter Wheat in Shaanxi Province from 1981 to 2010 Qu Zhenjiang1, Zheng Xiaohua1, Li Xinming2

  • Received:2012-08-13 Revised:2012-10-10 Online:2013-06-25 Published:2013-06-25

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摘要： 为了全面掌握陕西冬小麦种植区干热风灾害的基本特征，依据干热风气象灾害指标，利用1981—2010年近30年的气象资料，统计分析了陕北南部及秦岭以北的冬小麦主要种植区，共44个县区干热风的年际变化规律和空间分布特点，应用GIS技术研制了干热风区划图，并以富平县为例利用灾变预测方法预测未来重干热风的发生年份。结果表明，陕西冬小麦干热风自20世纪90年代中期开始有加重趋势，且年发生次数趋于稳定，主要发生区域在关中东部，陕北南部和关中中部次之，关中西部最少。

关键词: 优化控制, 优化控制

Abstract: In order to wholly master the basic character of the dry-hot-wind in winter wheat planted areas in Shaanxi Province, according to dry-hot-wind climatic disaster indexes of winter wheat, the author analyzed the yearly and space distribution characteristics of 44 counties in south of northern Shaanxi and north side of Qingling, by using climate data from 1981 to 2010, and used GIS technology to made the climatic regionalization of dry-hot-wind of winter wheat. Fuping future severe dry-hot-wind year was predicted by grey disaster forecast model as an example. The results showed that: the occurrences of dry-hot-wind had the increase trend since 1990s and the occurrence times tended to be stable. The main district of dry-hot-wind is in east of Guanzhong, south of northern Shaanxi and middle of Guanzhong took second places, the lowest district was in west of Guanzhong.