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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (32): 374-378.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-3140

所属专题： 小麦； 农业气象

• 农业科技信息 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于作物模型的冬小麦气候适宜度算法研究

王琦 郭建茂 郑腾飞 施俊怡   

  • 收稿日期:2012-09-17 修回日期:2012-10-17 出版日期:2013-11-15 发布日期:2013-11-15
  • 基金资助:
    农用天气预报关键技术研究;基于遥感与作物生长模型的江苏水稻生产评估方法研究

Research of Suitability Algorithm for Winter Wheat Based on Crop Model

  • Received:2012-09-17 Revised:2012-10-17 Online:2013-11-15 Published:2013-11-15

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摘要： 为了定量分析气象条件对作物生长的综合影响，利用WOFOST作物生长模型分析冬小麦各生育期的气候适宜度。通过对华北地区3个代表站点2007—2009年生长季的冬小麦进行生长模拟，并选取2007—2008年生长季的模拟结果作为标准，以其他年份同一生育期的生物量与标准的比值作为该生育期的气候适宜度，并与统计方法的结果进行对比。结果表明，用作物模型计算得到的适宜度与产量之间呈现出较好的正相关性，决定系数为0.603，且通过了0.05置信水平检验，可用该方法对冬小麦气候适宜度进行估算。

关键词: 敦煌, 敦煌

Abstract: In order to analyze the effect of weather condition on crop growth quantitatively, crop growth model WOFOST is used to calculate the climate suitability of winter wheat. Simulate the crop growth during 2007-2009 growing season in 3 representative sites in North China, and take the result of 2007-2008 growing season as standard, then compare other corresponding period’s biomass and take the ratio as winter wheat’s climate suitability then compare the value with traditional statistical algorithm. Results showed that, the suitability calculated by the model had a better positive correlation with the actual yield, R2=0.603 and passed the 0.05 confidence level test, the algorithm could be used to evaluate winter wheat’s climate suitability.