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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (16): 153-158.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-3694

所属专题： 园艺； 农业气象

• 林学 园艺 园林 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于县域单元的降尺度苹果花期冻害风险区划

柏秦凤 王景红 梁轶 刘璐 霍治国   

  • 收稿日期:2012-11-13 修回日期:2012-12-13 出版日期:2013-06-05 发布日期:2013-06-05
  • 基金资助:
    农业科技成果转化资金项目

The Apple Flowering Frost Damage Risk Zoning Down-scaling Based on County Level

  • Received:2012-11-13 Revised:2012-12-13 Online:2013-06-05 Published:2013-06-05

PDF (PC)

704

摘要： 为了有效利用气候资源，趋利避害，合理规划和发展陕西苹果产业；同时促进县域苹果种植布局优化，健康、可持续生产，依据5个苹果种植代表县县站与其境内区域站花期气温的关系，进行概率移植，借助各代表县县站1971—2012年花期气温数据，计算获得各代表县县站及其境内区域站苹果不同等级花期冻害的发生概率。根据对100多个历史灾害个例的分析结果，分别赋予苹果花期轻度、中度、重度等级冻害0.1、0.3、0.5的灾损系数。依据气候致灾风险的基本原理和模型，计算获得各代表县县站及其境内区域站的花期冻害风险指数，并基于GIS系统制作了各代表县的降尺度苹果花期冻害风险分布图。

关键词: 南疆, 南疆

Abstract: In order to use climate resources effectively and pursue the interests while avoiding disadvantages, planning and development Shaanxi apple industry reasonably, and promoting apple planting layout optimization and product healthfully and sustainably in county level. According to the relationship of flowering temperature of 5 apple plant counties which on behalf of the apple planting base its weather stations and it’s regional automatic weather stations, applying transplanting probability, borrowing the florescence temperature data from 1971 to 2012 of 5 apple plant counties’ weather stations, calculated and get the apple’ flowering frost damage probability of different levels of 5 apple plant counties’ weather stations and it’s regional automatic weather stations. According to the analyzing results of 100 historical disaster cases of apple, endowing 0.1, 0.3, 0.5 as mild, moderate, severe apple florescence frost damage’ loss coefficients. On the basis of the fundamental and model of climate hazard risk, the author calculated and get the apple’ flowering frost damage risk index of 5 apple plant counties’ weather stations and it’s regional automatic weather stations, and based on GIS system produced the apple flowering frost damage risk maps down-scaling of 5 apple plant counties.

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