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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (29): 175-182.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-4068

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

霜监测模型的探讨——以湖南省为例

段丽洁 廖玉芳 唐杰 卿湘涛 曾向红   

  • 收稿日期:2012-12-19 修回日期:2013-01-11 出版日期:2013-10-15 发布日期:2013-10-15
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局气候变化专项

Study of Frost Monitoring Model: Taking Hunan as an Example

  • Received:2012-12-19 Revised:2013-01-11 Online:2013-10-15 Published:2013-10-15

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摘要： 为了实现基于区域气象站观测资料进行霜的精细化监测和利用高分辨率数值预报产品开展霜的精细化预报，运用湖南省97个地面气象观测站建站至2012年4月逐日最低气温、降水量、相对湿度、风速、日照、总云量、天气现象资料，在全面分析了霜形成的气象条件的基础上建立了湖南省霜监测模型，开展了霜监测模型误差比对分析。结果表明：在日最低气温小于等于3℃条件下，分段考虑不同气象要素临界阈值对霜模拟准确率的提高有较大作用；建立的霜监测模型与霜观测结果的误差小于通用监测指标；霜监测模型模拟的的初霜日、终霜日、无霜期、霜日与观测值空间分布形态、年代际变化趋势都较为一致；该模型可用于开展霜的监测、预报。

关键词: 景观评价, 景观评价

Abstract: In order to realize the frost fine monitoring and forecast by using the observed data of regional meteorological stations and high resolution numerical prediction product, based on meteorological observation data of daily minimum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, sunshine, total cloud cover, weather phenomenon of 97 ground meteorological stations in Hunan Province from the time the stations were established to April 2012, on the analysis of frost formation based on the meteorological conditions, the frost monitoring model was established. And the model was compared with frost observation results. It showed that in the days the minimum temperature less than or equal to 3℃ condition, the accuracy of frost simulation was improved by considering different meteorological elements critical threshold value; the error between the established frost monitoring model and frost observations was less than that with general monitoring indicators; the spatial distribution pattern and decadal changing trendency of the first frost date and ending date, frost-free period, frost days simulated were mainly consistent with observations, and the model can be used in frost monitoring and forecasting.