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中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (11): 44-49.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-2139

• 农村产业结构与区域经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

东北三省粮食生产区域变化及影响因素分析

刘时东 陈印军 方琳娜   

  • 收稿日期:2013-08-08 修回日期:2013-08-27 出版日期:2014-04-15 发布日期:2014-04-15
  • 基金资助:
    “十二五” 农村领域国家科技计划课题 “东北平原中低产田改良技术模式集成研究” (2012BAD05B01-6)。

The Change of Grain Production Regional and Its Influencing Factors in Three Northeast Provinces

  • Received:2013-08-08 Revised:2013-08-27 Online:2014-04-15 Published:2014-04-15

摘要: 为了研究东北三省粮食生产区域变化及其影响因素,通过克里金空间插值法分析了1995年和2010年东北三省粮食单产和总产的空间格局及其变化情况,并对粮食单产区域差异的影响因素进行多元回归分析。结果表明:东北三省的粮食单产及总产都表现为由中部高值区向四周不断减少的格局,2010年与1995年相比粮食单产的高值中心由中部向西北部移动,粮食总产高值区域范围变大。从粮食单产的区域差异因素分析结果来看,在粮食单产降低区域,受灾比例升高、有效灌溉比例下降及单位面积农业劳动力升高是引起粮食单产降低的主要原因;在粮食单产升高区域,受灾比例下降、单位面积化肥使用量增加及单位面积农业劳动力降低等都对粮食增产有积极作用。

关键词: 海南岛, 海南岛

Abstract: In order to study the change of grain production regional and its influencing factors in three provinces of northeast China. Based on the kringing of special gridding method, the spatial pattern of grain per unit area yield and total output in 1995 and 2010 in three northeast provinces were analyzed, at the same time, the paper studied the factors affecting regional difference in grain per unit area yield with multivariate regression analysis. Results indicated that the grain per unit area yield and total output was reducing from central section to all around, compared to 1995, the center of high grain per unit area yield was moving from middle to northwest in 2010, the high value area of grain output was becoming bigger. According to the analysis of the factors affecting regional difference in grain per unit area yield, the increase of grain disaster area, the efficient irrigation proportion and the large quantity of labor force per unit area were the main reasons for the decline of grain per unit area yield; in the high grain yield per unit area, the decline in damage proportion, increasing in per unit area of fertilizers and the fall of labor force per unit area make contributions to the increase of grain yield.