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中国农学通报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (29): 116-122.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb18040019

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

海南岛异常冷冬环流特征及其在冷冬预测中的应用

朱晶晶1, 赵小平2, 吴胜安1, 汪正林3, 邢彩盈1   

  1. 1.海南省气候中心;2.西昌卫星发射中心气象水文室;3.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-03 修回日期:2018-05-03 接受日期:2018-05-17 出版日期:2019-10-14 发布日期:2019-10-14
  • 通讯作者: 赵小平
  • 基金资助:
    2016 年海南省气象局科研项目“近40 年海南省冷冬气候变化特征及其形成机理研究”(HNQXJS201606);2017 年海南自然科学基金面上项 目“影响海南岛强台风事件的多时间尺度气候因子协同作用研究”(417298);2017 年国家自然基金项目“海南岛强台风事件的年际至年代际气候背景 研究”(41785005)。

Analysis of Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics of the Abnormal Cold Winter in Hainan and Its Application in Cold Winter Forecast

  • Received:2018-04-03 Revised:2018-05-03 Accepted:2018-05-17 Online:2019-10-14 Published:2019-10-14

摘要: [目的]在“全年无冬”的海南岛,异常冷冬常给热带果木、橡胶树等农业及旅游业产生不利影响,因此需要对海南岛异常冷冬事件的大气环流特征及其在冷冬预测中的应用进行研究。[方法]利用近40年海南岛17个市县气象观测站逐月气温观测资料、NCEP/NCAR全球再分析格点资料、NOAA ERSST全球海温格点资料以及Nino3.4指数和AO指数以及国家气候中心提供的74项环流指数,开展了海南岛异常冷冬环流特征分析,并研究了其在冷冬趋势预测中的应用。[结果]结果表明:海南岛冬季平均气温存在年际变化特征,近年来海南岛共出现12次冷冬年,冷冬事件频发。海南岛冷冬发生期间,对流层低层冷高压加强,东亚冬季风偏强。[结论]ENSO与AO指数可以作为海南岛冷冬预测的参考依据,ENSO冷位相对应AO指数正位相,有利于诱发大气环流异常,促使海南岛出现冷冬事件。另外,利用大气环流指数建立的冬季气温距平回归预报方程能够较好地预测海南岛冬季气温趋势。

关键词: 硅藻土, 硅藻土, 废水处理, 吸附, 行业废水, 城镇污水

Abstract: [Objective][Method]There is no winter throughout the year in Hainan island. The abnormal cold winter often have adverse effect to the tropical fruit, rubber trees and other agricultural and tourism. Using the monthly mean temperature observation data from Hainan province Nearly 40 years and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets of 1977-2017 and NOAA ERSST date and Nino3.4 index and AO index and 74 circulation index from National Climate Center, this paper study the atmospheric circulation characteristics of the cold winter and its application in the trend forecast of cold winter temperature. [Result]The results show that: The temperature of winter over Hainan has the interannual characteristic. In recent years, the cold winter appeared 12 years and happened frequently. During the cold winter, the cold high pressure in low level and the East Asian winter monsoon strengthen. The ENSO and AO index can be used in the cold winter forecast. [Conclusion]The collective effect of cold phase of ENSO index and positive phase of AO index is beneficial to lead to low temperature over Hainan and then causing the cold winter. In addition,the accuracy of the regression forecast equation established by the atmospheric circulation index can be well used in the cold winter temperature trend forecast.

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