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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 13-21.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-2520

所属专题： 畜牧兽医

• 畜牧 动物医学 蚕 蜂 • 上一篇    下一篇

北京市鸡蛋及其相关行业市场分析及展望

黄体冉1,2,王大山1,肖金科1,王晓东1,戈雪松1,赵安平1   

  1. (1北京农学院,北京102206 ；2北京市农业局信息中心,北京100029）
  • 收稿日期:2013-09-24 修回日期:2015-01-11 接受日期:2014-09-18 出版日期:2015-03-19 发布日期:2015-03-19
  • 通讯作者: 黄体冉
  • 基金资助:
    国家“十一五”科技支撑课题“果蔬市场价格短期预测系统研究与示范”(2009BADA9B05)的部分研究内容。

The Market Analysis and Outlook of Eggs and Its Related Industries in Beijing

Huang Tiran1,2, Wang Dashan1, Xiao Jinke1, Wang Xiaodong1, Ge Xuesong1, Zhao Anping1   

  1. (1Beijing University of Agriculture, Beijing 102206 ;2Information Center of Beijing Municipal Bureau of Agriculture, Beijing 100029)
  • Received:2013-09-24 Revised:2015-01-11 Accepted:2014-09-18 Online:2015-03-19 Published:2015-03-19

摘要： 为了确定北京市鸡蛋价格波动规律及其影响因素，本研究采用指标分析、变异系数、季节调整模型以及HP滤波等方法，结合鸡蛋生产、商品代蛋雏鸡、饲料市场等鸡蛋相关行业市场情况，对北京市鸡蛋批发市场行情进行了分析。结果表明：2002—2012年，北京市批发市场鸡蛋月度价格呈上升趋势，振幅呈阶段性放大特征，大致经历了三个完整的波动周期，每个周期持续时间为37个月，年度内鸡蛋价格呈“一峰一谷”型，高价区集中在7—12月；年度内上市量与鸡蛋价格呈反向关系。玉米、蛋鸡配合饲料以及商品代蛋雏鸡等主要养殖成本增加是鸡蛋价格上升的重要原因之一。因此，应加强监测预警、建立鸡蛋价格保险制度、发展鸡蛋期货，以稳定鸡蛋价格、减少生产经营损失。

关键词: 扎龙湿地, 扎龙湿地, 叶绿素a, 协同克里格法, 反射率

Abstract: In order to study the law of the egg price volatility and the influencing factors of egg price, the method of indicators analysis, coefficient of variation, seasonal adjustment model and the HP filter were used to analyze the price of eggs. And egg production, goods generation egg chicks, feed market and other related industries according to the market of eggs were analyzed too. The results showed that, the price of eggs increased from 2002 to 2012, and the amplitude was amplified. The egg price had gone through 3 complete fluctuation cycles, each fluctuation cycle of the egg price roughly experienced 37 months. In the year, the price of eggs was a ‘peak-valley’ type, and the egg price was high from July to December. The listed amount basically changed in reverse to the egg price. The increasing of feeding cost of chicken, such as the price of corn, layer mixed feed, goods generation egg chicks and so on, was one of the important reasons for the increasing egg price. Therefore, in order to stabilize the price of eggs and reduce the losses of production, the monitoring and early warning should be strengthened, egg price insurance system should be established and egg futures should be developed.