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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (21): 173-176.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-3109

所属专题： 农业气象

• 农学 农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

四川省农田小气候预测模型初步研究

李媛媛 夏玉玲   

  • 收稿日期:2013-11-26 修回日期:2013-12-27 出版日期:2014-07-25 发布日期:2014-07-25
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重大研究项目(41290255)；2012年中国气象局气候变化专项“川渝地区种植制度对气候变化的响应与应对技术”(CCSF201219)。

A Preliminary Study About Farmland Climate Prediction Model in Sichuan

  • Received:2013-11-26 Revised:2013-12-27 Online:2014-07-25 Published:2014-07-25

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摘要： 为了解决农用天气预报中农田小气候观测资料缺乏的问题，本研究以地表土壤温度为例，利用四川省绵阳站的1981—2009年29年的日平均气温和地表温度资料，研究了地表温度与气温的交叉相关关系，并利用逐步回归统计方法建立了以气温为自变量的地表土壤温度预报模型，并进行了统计检验和预测试验。结果表明，大部分预测值与实测值的误差都在+1.0℃~-1.0℃以内，平均相对误差均低于10%，说明预报方程有较高的精度，可以用于地表土壤温度的预测中。

关键词: 茶青, 茶青, 机采适期, 机械组成, 鱼叶展期

Abstract: In order to resolve the deficiency of micro-climatic observation data in the work of agricultural weather forecast, a case study of Mianyang had been researched. The author used the date of average temperature and land surface temperature from 1981 to 2009, the relationship between them had been analyzed. Based the results, the forecast model that using the temperature as the independent variable had been established by the method of stepwise regression analysis, and the result had been tested .It showed that: most of deviation between predictive value and measured value were less than ±1.0℃, and the average relative error less than 10%. The result showed that forecast model had high precision, and that could be use to prediction of land surface temperature.