关键词: 消毒, 消毒

Abstract: Based on the daily mean air temperature data of the area along and south to the Yangtze River in Anhui Province, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the cold dew wind first day and the relationship between the cold dew wind first day and the air temperature of September were analyzed. Furthermore, the stepwise regression method was used to establish the climatic forecast model of the regional cold dew wind first day based on the earlier physical factors. Results showed that the cold dew wind early day was generally earlier in the area south to the Yangtze River than in the area along the Yangtze River and was earlier in the eastern part along the Yangtze River compared to the western part. The average date of the cold dew wind first day obviously postponed 2-3 days during 1981 to 2010 compared to the period during 1961 to 1990. Under the background of global warming, the cold dew wind first day of the area along and south to the Yangtze River showed a delayed trend during 1961 to 2010. The trend was most significant in the eastern part along the Yangtze River, followed by the eastern and southern parts south to the Yangtze River, and the northern part was less significant. Several features of the cold dew wind first day and the air temperature of September, including the mean climatic state, the spatial distribution of change trends and the temporal evolution characteristics during 1961 to 2013 were fairly consistent. This would provide a scientific basis for using the air temperature trend of September to forecast the trend of the cold dew wind first day. The regional cold dew wind first day still appeared to advance abnormally although the entire trend postponed during 1961 to 2013. The forecast model of the regional cold dew wind first day based on the earlier physical factors was significantly better than the method directly using the air temperature of September, whether for the cross-examination period from 1981 to 2010 or for the independent testing period from 2011 to 2013.