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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (29): 53-59.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-0448

所属专题： 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

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中国粮食主产区农业科技进步贡献率的测算与分析

牛凯   

  1. 四川省农业科学院农业信息与农村经济研究所
  • 收稿日期:2014-02-25 修回日期:2014-02-25 接受日期:2014-04-28 出版日期:2014-10-31 发布日期:2014-10-31
  • 通讯作者: 牛凯
  • 基金资助:
    四川省科技厅软科学项目(2014 ZR0017)

Calculation and Analysis of Contribution Rate of Agricultural Scientific and Technological Progress in China's Main Grain Production Region

  • Received:2014-02-25 Revised:2014-02-25 Accepted:2014-04-28 Online:2014-10-31 Published:2014-10-31

摘要： 为了深入研究农业科技进步对中国粮食主产区农业经济增长的影响，揭示中国农业科技进步在农业经济增长中的作用机理，探讨农业科技进步对农业经济增长影响的区域差异及其产生原因。作者基于C-D生产函数的一般形式，建立固定效应变参数面板数据分析模型，并依此对中国粮食主产区农业科技进步贡献率进行了详细地测算和分析。研究表明：中国粮食主产区农业科技进步贡献率存在明显的区域差异，反映出中国农业科技发展水平呈现区域不均衡状态；1978—2012 年间全国13 个粮食主产区的农业科技进步贡献率分别在17.28%~33.82%之间，全国粮食主产区平均水平为26.22%；在生产要素的投入中，资本存量的科技含量水平对农业科技进步贡献率的影响较大；农业科技进步在中国粮食主产区农业经济增长过程中所起的作用仍然较小，中国农业经济增长所依赖的传统的高投入、高消耗、低效益、低产出的粗放式增长方式并没有发生根本性的改变。

关键词: 相关分析, 相关分析

Abstract: The research aims to carry out an in- depth study of the impact of agricultural science and technology progress on agricultural economic growth in China's grain producing regions, reveal the mechanism of action of agricultural science and technology in agricultural economic growth, and explore the regional differences of the influence of agricultural science and technology progress on economic growth of agriculture and its causes. Based on the general form of the C-D production function, the author established a fixed effect varying parameter panel data analysis model. According to the model, the contribution rate of agricultural scientific and technological progress in China's major grain producing areas were calculated and analyzed in detail. Studies showed that：there were significant regional differences in the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress in China's grain producing regions，reflecting the level of development of agricultural science and technology in China had an uneven regional status. From 1978 to 2012, the contribution rates of agricultural scientific and technological progress in the country's 13 grain producing's regions were between 17.28%-33.82%, and the average level was 26.22%. Investment in production factors, the level of scientific and technological content of the capital stock had great impact on the contribution rate of agricultural scientific and technological progress. The role of scientific and technological progress of agriculture in the process of economic growth in was still relatively small, agricultural economic growth in China relied on traditional high input, high consumption, low output, low efficiency of the extensive growth mode and no fundamental change occurred.