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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 166-173.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-1789

所属专题： 资源与环境； 现代农业发展与乡村振兴； 农业气象； 农业生态

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

1950—2011年石羊河流域中、下游气候和农业水资源变化分析

蒋菊芳1,2,魏育国2,刘明春2,丁文魁2,李 英2   

  1. (1中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾开放实验室,兰州 730020；2甘肃省武威市气象局农业气象试验站,甘肃武威 733000）
  • 收稿日期:2014-06-26 修回日期:2015-01-08 接受日期:2014-08-18 出版日期:2015-03-18 发布日期:2015-03-18
  • 通讯作者: 蒋菊芳
  • 基金资助:

    基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目“半干旱区作物干旱致灾过程特征及其若干阈值研究”(41275118)；科技部行业（气象）专项“农田水分利用效率对气候变化的响应与适应技术”(GYHY201106029)；甘肃省气象局科研重点项目“武威市日光温室小气候指标及调控技术”(2013-13)。

Chang of Climate and Agricultural Water Resources in Middle to
Down Stream of Shiyang Rive Basin from 1950 to 2011

Jiang Jufang1,2, Wei Yuguo2, Liu Mingchun2, Ding Wenkui2, Li Ying2   

  1. (1Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Change and Disaster Reducing of CMA/Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020;2Agriculture Station of Wuwei Meteorological Bureau City of Gansu Province, Wuwei Gansu 733000)
  • Received:2014-06-26 Revised:2015-01-08 Accepted:2014-08-18 Online:2015-03-18 Published:2015-03-18

摘要：

为揭示石羊河流域中、下游用水矛盾的根源，利用1950—2011年石羊河流域中、下游人类活动、径流量和气象观测资料，比较气候变化过程中流域中、下游绿洲化推进对农业水资源利用与生态环境恶化的内在关系。结果表明：近60年来，石羊河流域8条河流合成年径流量呈下降趋势，中游降水变化倾向率为5.1 mm/10年大于下游2.5 mm/10年，下游年蒸发量却以11.6 mm/10年的速度增加，且流域中、下游气温呈持续上升趋势(P＜0.001)，60年间气温分别升高了1.8和1.9℃，地表可利用农业水资源减少。中游人口以9.95万人/10年(P＜0.001)快速增长是下游的5.5倍，人均耕地面积减少倾向率中游 0.119 hm2/10年(P＜0.001)大于下游0.036 hm2/10年(P＜0.01)，但保灌面积增加速度下游0.637万hm2/10年(P＜0.01)大于中游0.451万hm2/10年(P＜0.01)，机井数量增速下游1867.6口/10年(P＜0.01)大于中游884.3口/10年(P＜0.001)，人类过快开发利用地下水资源直接影响了生态承载力和生态安全。随着气温持续升高、蒸发加剧、降水微弱增加和河流来水减少，保灌面积和机井数量迅速增加，对地下水资源的开发利用加剧，导致研究区出现农业向生态争水，中游向下游争水的恶性局面，这也是人类活动和气候变化同时影响的结果。

关键词: ISSR-PCR, ISSR-PCR

Abstract: To reveal the fundamental cause of water use conflicts in middle to down stream of Shiyang Rive Basin, the author used data of human activities, runoff and meteorological observation of this area in recent 60 years, to compare internal relationships between agricultural water resources utilization and ecological environment deterioration in the process of oasis advance and climate change. The results showed that: in the Shiyang river basin, eight rivers’ synthesis runoff was on the decline in the past 60 years. The precipitation tendency rate was 5.1 mm per 10 years in the middle stream, which was greater than 2.5 mm per 10 years in the down stream, but the annual evaporation speed was increased at a rate of 11.6 mm per 10 years in the down stream. The temperature had a slowly rising trend (P＜0.001), the temperature were increased by 1.8 and 1.9℃ in middle and down stream of the past 60 years. The available surface water resources for agriculture reduced. The middle stream population rapidly increased by 99500 people per 10 years (P＜0.001), which was 5.5 times of that of the down stream. The decreasing rate of average per capita farmland area reached 0.119 hm2 per 10 years (P＜0.001) in the middle stream, greater than 0.036 hm2 per 10 years (P＜0.01) in the down stream, but the increasing speed of irrigation area of security was 0.637 hm2 per 10 years (P＜0.01) in the down stream, greater than that in the middle stream, which was 0.451 hm2 per 10 years (P＜0.01). The well number increasing speed was 1867.6 per 10 years (P＜0.01) in the down stream, more than that in the middle stream, which was 884.3 per 10 years (P＜0.001). Human excessive exploitation of groundwater resources directly affected the ecological carrying capacity and ecological security. As the temperature continued to rise, the evaporation increased, precipitation weakly increased, and river water, the irrigation area of security and the well number increased rapidly, which increased development and utilization of groundwater resources. That led to water conflicts between agriculture and ecology, between the middle stream and the down stream in the researched area, which was the result of human activity and climate change at the same time.