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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 21-25.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15010167

所属专题： 水稻

• 农学 农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

福建水稻单产保险费率厘定研究

徐学荣,马改艳,周 磊   

  1. (福建农林大学经济学院,福州 350002）
  • 收稿日期:2015-01-22 修回日期:2015-02-10 接受日期:2015-02-02 出版日期:2015-03-20 发布日期:2015-03-20
  • 通讯作者: 徐学荣
  • 基金资助:
    福建省自然科学基金项目“水稻产量风险分布及保险费率厘定模型研究——基于福建省25个粮食主产县的数据”(2011J01378)。

Rice Yield Insurance Rates Estimating in Fujian Province

Xu Xuerong, Ma Gaiyan, Zhou Lei   

  1. (Economic College Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002)
  • Received:2015-01-22 Revised:2015-02-10 Accepted:2015-02-02 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-03-20

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摘要： 准确的费率厘定对推动农作物保险发展至关重要，它将有助于实现作物保险“农民买得起、保险公司赔得起、政府补得起”。通过使用正态分布、卡方分布、Weibull分布、Logistic分布、Gamma分布、极小值分布和非参数核密度分布等7种模型对福建省水稻单产的概率分布进行了拟合，并对应地厘定了水稻单产保险的纯费率。并利用经验费率法厘定了水稻单产的纯费率。最终在获得8个纯费率估计值的基础上，应用算术平均厘定费率方法，求得福建水稻单产保险纯费率为1.2922%，据此计算了福建水稻单产保险的费率。结果能为开展福建水稻区域产量保险厘定费率时予以参考。

关键词: 环境学, 环境学, 少根紫萍, Cd2+, Cr6+, 交互作用, 生理生化特性

Abstract: Estimating accurate insurance rate is very important to promote the development of crop insurance, it can contribute to achieving the goal that farmers can afford the crop insurance, insurance companies can afford the compensation and government can afford the subsidy. First, we used Normal distribution, Chi-square distribution, Weibull distribution, Logistic distribution, Gamma distribution, Extreme (Min) distribution and nonparametric kernel density distribution to simulate the probability distribution of the loss rate of rice yield in Fujian, and estimated its pure rates accordingly. Second, we used experience rating method to calculate the rice pure rate. Finally, based on the eight pure rates, we used the method of arithmetic average to estimate the rice yield insurance pure rate of Fujian, the pure rate was 1.2922%, and according to this rate, calculated the rice insurance rates. The results will provide reference for setting rice area insurance rate of Fujian.