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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (26): 279-284.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15040025

所属专题： 现代农业发展与乡村振兴； 农业地理

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑龙江农业可持续发展系统动力学模型仿真

曾 蓓,胡雨村   

  1. (北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京 100083）
  • 收稿日期:2015-04-03 修回日期:2015-06-29 接受日期:2015-06-30 出版日期:2015-09-23 发布日期:2015-09-23
  • 通讯作者: 曾 蓓
  • 基金资助:
    黑龙江省科技支撑计划项目“黑龙江省可持续发展实验区指标体系研究”(2011SZ0179)。

SD Model Simulation for Sustainable Development of Agriculture in Heilongjiang Province

Zeng Bei, Hu Yucun   

  1. (Soil and Water Conservation Institute, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083)
  • Received:2015-04-03 Revised:2015-06-29 Accepted:2015-06-30 Online:2015-09-23 Published:2015-09-23

PDF (PC)

548

摘要： 为实现黑龙江省农业可持续性发展，运用复杂系统的观点研究分析了农业发展的特点，将黑龙江农业发展系统划分为农业经济、农业技术、农村社会、农业环境4个子系统。在此基础上，通过分析各子系统间的关联及影响机理，利用Vensim DSS软件及《黑龙江省统计年鉴》等历史数据，经过参数估计及有效性检验，从而建立并完善了黑龙江农业可持续发展的系统动力学模型。然后对黑龙江省2005—2020年农业各子系统发展的可持续性进行仿真模拟与预测。结果发现黑龙江省的农业经济可持续度发展最好，农业技术次之，农业社会与生态环境可持续性最差。

关键词: 旅游发展, 旅游发展, 城乡收入差距, 面板数据

Abstract: To achieve a reasonable development of agriculture in Heilongjiang Province, agricultural system of Heilongjiang was analyzed from the perspective of complex system and divided into four parts, including agricultural-economic subsystem, agricultural-technical subsystem, rural social subsystem and agricultural-environmental subsystem. System dynamics model for sustainable development of agriculture in Heilongjiang Province was established and optimized by the parameter estimation and validity check based on Vensim DSS software and “Heilongjiang Province Statistical Yearbook” and other historical data through analyzing the influencing mechanism and correlation among these subsystems. Then, the sustainability of each subsystem in Heilongjiang Province from 2005 to 2020 was simulated and forecasted. The results showed that sustainability of agricultural economy was the best, followed by that of agricultural technology, social and ecological sustainability of agriculture were the worst.