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中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 178-183.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15090137

所属专题: 现代农业发展与乡村振兴 农业气象

• 农业科技信息 • 上一篇    下一篇

安徽省农业旱灾风险评估与区划

江 懿,陈 磊,陈 娟,任 竹   

  1. 安徽省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,安徽省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,安徽省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,安徽省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所
  • 收稿日期:2015-09-29 修回日期:2016-01-13 接受日期:2015-11-24 出版日期:2016-02-19 发布日期:2016-02-19
  • 通讯作者: 陈 磊
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省农业灾害风险分析研究科技创新团队(14C1409)

Assessment and Regionalization of Agricultural Drought Disasters in Anhui Province

  • Received:2015-09-29 Revised:2016-01-13 Accepted:2015-11-24 Online:2016-02-19 Published:2016-02-19

摘要: 为客观分析农业旱灾对安徽农作物造成的风险损失,根据安徽省1991—2012 年的农业灾情数据和农作物播种面积等数据资料,对安徽省农业旱灾风险进行了评估区划。结果显示:旱灾是安徽省主要的农业自然灾害,22 年间安徽省旱灾占农业自然灾害受灾面积和成灾面积的比例分别为42.1%和40.1%;安徽省各市受灾面积和成灾面积的变化具有很强的同步性;安徽省农业旱灾呈现出风险发生周期短、频率高的特点,旱灾受灾面积一般不超过60%,该指数下风险概率为357.1 年一遇;从旱灾风险时空分布看,淮北和江淮地区旱灾风险较高。

关键词: CI指数, CI指数, 石河子农垦区, 干湿变化

Abstract: To analyze the risk loss of agricultural crops caused by drought, agricultural drought risk in Anhui Province was assessed and regionalized based on data of agricultural disaster and crop sowing area from 1991 to 2012. The results showed that drought was the main agricultural natural disaster in Anhui Province. In the 22 years, drought accounted for 42.1% and 40.1% of agricultural natural disaster affected area and disaster area, respectively. In the cities of Anhui Province, the changes of affected area and disaster area had strong synchronization. Agricultural drought in Anhui Province had short period and high frequency. The drought affected area was generally not more than 60%, and the risk probability was once in 357.1 years. According to the spatial and temporal distribution of the drought risk, Huaibei area and Jianghuai area had higher drought risk than other areas.

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