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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (17): 137-141.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16010022

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

西藏近50年极值降水变化趋势

张核真1,多吉次仁2,卓 嘎1   

  1. (1西藏自治区气候中心,拉萨 850000；2西藏自治区气象服务中心,拉萨 850000）
  • 收稿日期:2016-01-06 修回日期:2016-05-27 接受日期:2016-02-24 出版日期:2016-06-20 发布日期:2016-06-20
  • 通讯作者: 张核真
  • 基金资助:
    无基金

Variation Trend of Extreme Precipitation in Tibet During Recent 50 Years

Zhang Hezhen1, Duojiciren2, Zhuo Ga1   

  1. (1Climatic Center of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850000; 2Weather Service Center of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850000)
  • Received:2016-01-06 Revised:2016-05-27 Accepted:2016-02-24 Online:2016-06-20 Published:2016-06-20

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摘要： 为进一步揭示西藏极端降水变化趋势及特征，为防灾减灾提供参考依据。利用西藏1961—2010年18个有连续气象观测记录站点的逐日降水资料，分析了7个序列降水统计量的变化趋势。发现近50年，西藏平均年降水日数为弱的增多趋势，最长连续降水日数为弱的减少趋势，最长连续降水总量变化趋势不明显，1日和3日最大降水量为弱的增大趋势，年降水量、平均降水强度、强降水日数均为显著增加趋势；平均降水强度显著增大和强降水日数显著增多，是西藏平均年降水量显著增大的最主要原因；西藏的西部和沿江上游地区年降水量减少且趋于集中，干日增多，干期增长，干旱化趋势更加严重。其他大部分地区年降水量增多，平均降水强度增大，强降水日数增多，短时强降水引发的洪涝等灾害可能趋于增多。

关键词: 板栗, 板栗, 迟熟品种, ISSR标记, 引物筛选, 品种鉴定

Abstract: The paper aims to reveal the variation trend and characteristics of extreme precipitation in Tibet and provide references for disaster prevention and mitigation. With daily precipitation observation data of 18 meteorological stations in Tibet during 1961-2010, the variation trends of 7 variables in Tibet Autonomous Region were investigated. The results showed that: The results showed that: the mean annual precipitation day indicated slightly increasing variation and the longest continuous precipitation day presented weak decreasing variation trend in recent 50 years while the total precipitation amount had no obvious variation. The maximum precipitation in one day and three days exhibited a slightly increasing trend. The annual precipitation, mean precipitation intensity and strong precipitation days presented a significantly increasing trend. The increase of the mean precipitation intensity and the strong precipitation days were the major reason for a remarkably increasing trend of the precipitation in Tibet. The precipitation showed a decreasing trend in western Tibet and the upper reaches of Yarlungzangbu River, where the days without rainfall increased and the dry season was much longer than before, and the desertification became more serious. The annual precipitation, the mean precipitation intensity and the strong precipitation days increased in most parts of Tibet, and the flood and waterlogging caused by the strong precipitation in short time might increase.