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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (23): 135-141.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16020014

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于AHP和PCA的暴雨灾害风险区划--以河南省卫辉市为例

田晓璐,李香颜,张金平   

  1. 新乡市气象局,新乡市气象局,新乡市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2016-02-02 修回日期:2016-03-04 接受日期:2016-03-14 出版日期:2016-08-10 发布日期:2016-08-10
  • 通讯作者: 李香颜
  • 基金资助:
    新乡市科技发展计划项目“基于GIS的新乡市气象灾害风险评估和区划研究”(14SF01)。

Risk Zonation of Rainstorm Disaster Based on AHP and PCA: Taking Example for Weihui City in Henan Province

李香颜 and   

  • Received:2016-02-02 Revised:2016-03-04 Accepted:2016-03-14 Online:2016-08-10 Published:2016-08-10

PDF (PC)

531

摘要： 为充分了解卫辉市暴雨灾害的时空分布特征和发生规律，最大限度减轻灾害造成的损失，根据气象灾害系统理论及目前国际上流行的评估模型，选取卫辉市1961—2014年各乡镇灾情、雨量站的逐日降水量、DEM、GDP、农民人均收入等数据，利用层次分析法(AHP)和主成分分析法(PCA)构建了暴雨灾害风险评估模型，并通过ArcGIS绘制分辨率为30 m×30 m的灾害风险区划图。结果表明：卫辉市暴雨灾害风险等级自中部向四周呈递减总趋势。其中，孙杏村镇、汲水镇、顿坊店乡、上乐村镇的灾害风险等级较高，容易发生致灾性较强的暴雨灾害；而太公泉镇、后河镇、李源屯镇、狮豹头乡的灾害风险等级较低，暴雨灾害对当地农业生产的危害不大。[结论]该研究对政府及相关部门制订气象灾害防御方案、调整农业结构布局等具有重要的参考意义。

关键词: PE编织布, PE编织布, 膜下移栽, 烤烟生长, 理化特性

Abstract: The paper aims to reveal the temporal and spatial characteristics and the occurrence regularity of rainstorm disaster in Weihui City, so as to reduce the loss caused by disasters.According to the theory of meteorological disaster system and the international evaluation model, the writer used the historical rainstorm disasters from 1961 to 2014、daily precipitation、DEM、GDP and per capita income of peasants.The assessment model of rainstorm disaster was constructed by means of AHP and PCA, and the zoning map with resolution of 30 m * 30 m meters was drawn by ArcGIS.The results showed that, the disaster risk in Weihui City showed a decreasing trend from the central to the surrounding. The disaster risk in Sunxing town, Jishui town, Dunfangdian village and Shangle town was higher, so heavy rainstorm disasters were prone to take place; while the disaster risk in Taigongquan town, Houhe town, Liyuantun town and Shibaotou village was lower, so the harm of rainstorm disasters to agricultural production was not serious.[CONCLUSION]The study is of great significance for the government and related departments to formulate the prevention of meteorological disasters，and to adjust the agricultural structure.