欢迎访问《中国农学通报》,

中国农学通报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10): 118-124.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16120017

所属专题: 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

北京市雾霾灾害农业损失引起的部门间接经济损失评估

李春华,赵隽宇   

  1. 中南林业科技大学 理学院理学院,中南林业科技大学 理学院
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-02 修回日期:2017-02-28 接受日期:2017-03-03 出版日期:2017-04-11 发布日期:2017-04-11
  • 通讯作者: 李春华
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“基于投入产出局部闭模型的雾霾灾害社会经济影响评价”(14YJA790021);湖南省教育厅科学研 究重点项目“长株潭城市群雾霾灾害间接经济损失发生机制、影响评估及调控措施研究”(15A202)。

Indirect Economic Loss Estimation of Inter-industrial Sectors: Triggered from Agricultural Economic Loss Induced from Haze in Beijing

  • Received:2016-12-02 Revised:2017-02-28 Accepted:2017-03-03 Online:2017-04-11 Published:2017-04-11

摘要: 雾霾灾害给农业生产造成严重损失,开展雾霾影响研究有重要的科学价值和实际意义。为了评估雾霾污染造成的经济损失,利用需求和供给驱动的投入产出模型来评价雾霾引起的农业损失所造成的经济部门间接经济损失。研究发现:(1)2012 年北京市雾霾引起的农业直接经济损失是415498.5 万元,从需求或者供给侧面计算的农业间接经济损失是551648.439 万元,占农业GDP的13.94%;(2)从需求角度,2012年北京市雾霾灾害引起农业损失导致各个经济部门的间接关联总经济损失为1313920.404万元,占当年GDP的0.735%,从供给角度,造成的总的部门间接关联经济损失为2517272.698 万元,占当年GDP的1.408%。结果表明,雾霾灾害间接经济损失明显大于直接经济损失,通过供给机制对部门造成的间接经济影响比需求造成的损失严重。本研究所构建的灾害损失评估投入产出模型方法考虑了经济部门之间的需求和供给驱动机制,是对直接经济损失和间接经济损失评估方法的完善。

关键词: 森林旅游区, 森林旅游区, 民生特征, 湖南

Abstract: Haze disaster has caused serious losses to agricultural production and evaluation of haze impact has important value and significance. To estimate the economic losses caused by haze pollution, this paper utilized demand- driven and supply- driven input- output (IO) model to estimate the monetary value of economic sectors’losses resulting from reduced agricultural output caused by PM2.5 in Beijing in 2012. The results showed that: (1) agricultural direct economic losses caused by haze were 4154.985 million RMB and agricultural indirect economic losses calculated from the demand or supply side were 5516.48439 million RMB (accounting for 13.94% of GDP in agriculture) in Beijing in 2012; (2) the total demand-driven economic losses of 13139.20404 million RMB (approximately 0.735% of the national GDP) and total supply-driven loss of 25172.72698 million RMB (approximately 1.408% of the national GDP) were caused by agricultural output loss resulting from PM2.5 air pollution in 2012. The results indicated that indirect economic losses caused by haze were greater than direct economic losses and Beijing’s regional economy might have been affected more seriously through supply-driven effects compared with the impacts caused by the demand-driven effects. The developed IO model is able to capture both direct economic costs and indirect cascading effects throughout inter- industrial production demand and supply chains and provide an alternative method for sector loss measurement with additional insights into inter-industry along production demand and supply chains.