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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (11): 97-102.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0427

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

贵德地区梨树始花期预报模型研究

钟存1(), 雷玉红2(), 魏鹏1   

  1. 1 青海省贵德县气象局，青海贵德 811799
    2 青海省格尔木市气象局，青海格尔木 816099
  • 收稿日期:2023-06-06 修回日期:2024-01-19 出版日期:2024-04-15 发布日期:2024-04-11
  • 通讯作者:
    雷玉红，女，1976年出生，副高级工程师，大专，主要从事农业气象与生态环境方面的研究。通信地址：816099 青海省格尔木市气象局，Tel：0979-8492569，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    钟存，女，1975年出生，副高级工程师，本科，主要从事农业气象方面的研究。通信地址：811799 青海省贵德县河阴镇祥云路59号 贵德县气象局，Tel：0974-8553331，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    青海省防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金重点攻关项目“柴达木盆地温棚作物观测试验与气象服务指标研究”(QFZ-2021-G05); 青海省气象局面上项目“贵德地区果树特色农业气象服务指标研究”(QXM2020-41)

Study on Forecasting Model of Pear Tree Initial Flowering Date in Guide Area

ZHONG Cun1(), LEI Yuhong2(), WEI Peng1   

  1. 1 Guide County Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai Province, Guide, Qinghai 811799
    2 Golmud Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai Province, Golmud, Qinghai 816099
  • Received:2023-06-06 Revised:2024-01-19 Published:2024-04-15 Online:2024-04-11

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摘要：

利用贵德地区种植历史悠久软梨品种2007—2020年开花始期和同期气象要素数据，分析始花期与每旬平均气温、旬平均最高气温、旬平均最低气温、旬降水量和旬日照时数的相关性，应用逐步回归方法建立每年2月下旬—4月上旬每旬的梨树始花期预报模型。通过9月上旬—次年4月中旬期间每旬气温、降水量和日照时数与梨树开花始期距平日序做相关性计算，梨花开放的迟早受梨树越冬期不同时段的气象因子影响，后期气象因子影响大，前期气象因子影响相对较小；温度、日照因子影响大，降水因子影响较小。模型检验结果显示，预测值与实测值相差3 d之内的有10 a，预报正确率达86%，预测准确率高，拟合度好，该模型能够更好地服务于黄河生态文化旅游的发展。

关键词: 贵德地区, 梨树始花期, 预报模型

Abstract:

The data of flowering onset and corresponding meteorological factors from 2007 to 2020 of soft pear cultivars with a long history in Guide County were used, the correlation between the initial flowering period and the ten-day average temperature, the ten-day average maximum temperature, the ten-day average minimum temperature, the ten-day precipitation and the ten-day sunshine hours was analyzed, the forecasting model of the beginning flowering period of pear tree in every ten days from late February to early April was established by using stepwise regression method. The correlation of temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration per ten days between the first ten days of September and the middle ten days of April was calculated, the opening time of pear blossom is affected by the meteorological factors in different periods of the overwintering period, and the meteorological factors in the later period have a great influence, while the meteorological factors in the earlier period have a relatively small influence. The model test results showed that there were 10 years that the difference between the predicted value and the measured value was within 3 days, and the prediction accuracy was 86%. The prediction accuracy is high, the fitting degree is good, and the model can be applied. This model can better serve the development of ecological and cultural tourism in the Yellow River.

Key words: Guide region, the first flowering period of pear trees, forecasting model