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中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (7): 147-151.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15100013

所属专题: 园艺 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

贵德县梨树始花期与气象因子的相关分析及预报模型

郭连云,赵年武   

  1. 青海省海南州气象局 青海 共和 813099,青海省海南州气象局 青海 共和 813099
  • 收稿日期:2015-10-08 修回日期:2016-01-25 接受日期:2015-11-18 出版日期:2016-03-18 发布日期:2016-03-18
  • 通讯作者: 郭连云
  • 基金资助:

Correlation Analysis and Forecasting Model of Beginning of Flowering Period of Pear Tree and Meteorological Factors

  • Received:2015-10-08 Revised:2016-01-25 Accepted:2015-11-18 Online:2016-03-18 Published:2016-03-18

摘要: 为准确预报贵德地区梨树的始花期提供方法支持。笔者利用2007—2014 年青海省贵德县气象局观测的梨树始花期资料和地面气象观测资料,对影响梨树始花期的气象因子进行分析。结果表明:影响梨树始花期的主要气象因子是气温稳定通过5.0℃到3 月底的积温值。利用逐步回归分析方法建立了基于主要气象因子的梨树始花期预报模型,用所建立的预测模型对2007—2014 年梨花始花期进行回测,准确率较高。对2015 年梨树始花期日期进行预测,预测值与实际观测值之间相差1 天,预报值基本吻合。所建立的预测模型能准确预测贵德县梨树始花期的预报。

关键词: 副猪嗜血杆菌, 副猪嗜血杆菌, 分离, 鉴定, 16S rRNA, 序列分析

Abstract: The paper aims to supply a method for accurately predicting the beginning of flowering period of pear in Guide Area. By using ground meteorological observation data and data of the beginning of flowering period of peal tree in Guide Meteorological Bureau during 2007-2014, the meteorological factors influencing the beginning of flowering period of peal tree were analyzed. The results showed that: the key factor affecting the beginning of flowering period of pear tree was the accumulated temperature of the temperature stability by 5℃ to the end of March. The prediction model of the beginning of flowering period of local pear tree was established by stepwise regression analysis method based on the principal meteorological factors. Using the established prediction model to back predict the beginning of flowering of pear tree in 2007- 2014, the accuracy was relatively high. By forecasting the data of the beginning of flowering of pear tree in 2015, there was only one day between the predicted value and the measured value, the measured value basically agreed well with the predicted value. The prediction model established in the study could curately forecast the beginning of flowering of pear tree in Guide Area.