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中国农学通报 ›› 2008, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (8): 387-391.

• 植物保护 农药 • 上一篇    下一篇

柑橘黄龙病入侵与疫情扩散模型研究

余继华,汪恩国   

  • 收稿日期:2008-05-25 修回日期:2008-06-05 出版日期:2008-08-08 发布日期:2008-08-08

Research on Epidemic Diffusion Model of Citrus Huanglongbing in Citrus Orchard

Yu Jihua, Wang Enguo   

  • Received:2008-05-25 Revised:2008-06-05 Online:2008-08-08 Published:2008-08-08

摘要: 为了提示柑橘黄龙病入侵发病扩散规律,评估防控成效,有效控制疫情,2002—2007年在柑橘黄龙病初发生区采用设立自然条件、治虫防病和综合防控三处理类型,监测柑橘黄龙病发生扩散动态,结合面上疫情普查资料,创建柑橘黄龙病自然条件下、治虫防病条件下以及综合防控条件下的疫情扩散模型,分别为:P1=12.9690N1-18.10(n=6,r=0.9945**)或P1=0.2293N12+11.135N1-14.89(n=6,r=0.9948**),P2=7.8857N2-10.2667(n=6,r=0.9675**)或P2=1.4107N22-1.9893N2+2.90(n=7,r=0.9996**)和P3=-0.1398x N32+1.1248N3-1.141(n=6,r=0.8396*),结果表明柑橘黄龙病在自然条件下从发病到毁园需要9a时间,单一治虫防病措施难以达到持续控制效果,只有采取综合防控措施,才能达到可持续控制,保障柑橘优势产业持续健康发展。

关键词: 丝栗栲, 丝栗栲, 生长规律, 生长模型, 福建延平, 总生长量

Abstract: The occurrence of Citrus Huanglongbing were investigated to reveal the epidemic diffusion in citrus orchards. Based on the three types of treatment: natural conditions without artificial control, simple pest control and disease prevention and the integrated control methods, we established the epidemic diffusion model of Citrus Huanglongbing by the dynamic inspection of onset and dispersion in Huangyan District from2002 to 2007, with the help of the epidemic census data: P1=12.9690N1-18.10(n=6,r=0.9945**)or P1=0.2293N12+11.135N1-14.89(n=6,r=0.9948**),P2=7.8857N2-10.2667(n=6,r=0.9675**) or P2=1.4107N22-1.9893N2+2.90(n=7,r=0.9996**) and P3=-0.1398xN32+1.1248N3-1.141(n=6,r=0.8396*). The results show that it takes nine years from the onset to complete destruction in natural conditions without artificial control by the models. Simple pest control and disease prevention measures also were difficult to achieve the sustainable control effect. The integrated control methods’s an effective approach to control Citrus Huanglongbing sustainably and safeguard the smooth development of dominant citrus industry.

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