青海湖水位波动对流域气候暖湿化特征的响应研究

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17070061

中国农学通报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (26): 119-127.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17070061

所属专题：农业气象

• 资源环境生态土壤气象 • 上一篇下一篇

青海湖水位波动对流域气候暖湿化特征的响应研究

李晓东,李林,汪关信,何灼伦,肖建设

兰州大学资源环境学院,青海省气象科学研究所,兰州大学资源环境学院,青海省水文水资源勘测局,青海省气象科学研究所

收稿日期:2017-07-13 修回日期:2018-08-20 接受日期:2018-03-23 出版日期:2018-09-19 发布日期:2018-09-19
通讯作者: 李晓东
基金资助:
青海省科技厅重大专项“三江源智慧生态畜牧业技术平台研发”(2015-SF-A4-1)；青海省农牧厅支农专项“三江源智慧生态畜牧业技术平台研发”(2015-SF-A4-1)；人社部2016 年度“留学人员科技活动项目”择优项目；中国气象局成都高原气象研究所开放基金项目“青海湖水位对气候变化响应动态机制研究”(LPM2014004)。

Water Level and Agriculture and Husbandry Characteristics in Qinghai Lake Basin: The Response to Climate Warming and Wetting

汪关信,何灼伦 and 肖建设

Received:2017-07-13 Revised:2018-08-20 Accepted:2018-03-23 Online:2018-09-19 Published:2018-09-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了揭示青海湖水位变化及农牧业特征对气候暖湿化的响应，通过分析流域气象、水位以及草地NDVI变化、建立水位评估模型，计算各因素贡献率，定量评估各要素对湖水位和农牧业的影响。结果表明，流域气候呈显著暖湿化趋势，降水量总体呈弱的增加态势，但近15年增加显著并在2003发生突变；流域内平均气温、最低气温和最高气温均呈显著的升高趋势（P<0.01）。湖水位从1961年开始下降趋势显著，速率为-0.5 m/10 a（P<0.01）；2004—2015年的近10年连续上升，上升速率达1.44 m/10 yr（P<0.01）并在2004年发生了突变。前一年降水量、流量及蒸发量对水位影响大，贡献率大小依次为流量、降水量和蒸发量。因此，近15年降水量增加及其导致的河流径流量增加可能是水位上涨的主要原因。

Abstract: The paper aims to reveal influence of meteorological and hydrological factors on water level, agriculture and husbandry on Qinghai Lake, which through analyzing long time series meteorological and hydrological monitoring data in Qinghai Lake basin, and modelling water level’s assessment as well as calculating contribution rate of the factors and quantitative evaluate influence on water level and agriculture and husbandry. The results show that climate appeared obvious trend of warm and wet in Qinghai Lake basin. The precipitation showed weak trend of increase, and increased significantly from 2001 to 2015 nearly 15a with a climatic tendency rate of 10.8mm/10a but occurred mutation in 2003. Average temperature, lowest temperature and maximum temperature appeared apparently trend of increase (P<0.01). Water level showed significant trend of decrease from 1961, the change tendency rate was -0.5 m/10a (P<0.01). Nearly 10a from 2004 to 2015, water level had risen sequentially and had been a sudden change from falling to rising in 2004, and rising rate was 14.4m/10a (P<0.01). The order of contribution rate of water level, which is discharge precipitation and evaporation. The change of precipitation, discharge and evaporation had a greater impact on water level in the previous year. Water level had risen in Qinghai Lake was most leading cause for that increasing precipitation and increasing inflow rivers runoff, which through change of the basin precipitation and inflow rivers runoff in recent 15 years.

中图分类号:

P467

李晓东,李林,汪关信,何灼伦,肖建设. 青海湖水位波动对流域气候暖湿化特征的响应研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2018, 34(26): 119-127.

汪关信,何灼伦 and 肖建设. Water Level and Agriculture and Husbandry Characteristics in Qinghai Lake Basin: The Response to Climate Warming and Wetting[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2018, 34(26): 119-127.

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青海湖水位波动对流域气候暖湿化特征的响应研究

Water Level and Agriculture and Husbandry Characteristics in Qinghai Lake Basin: The Response to Climate Warming and Wetting

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