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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2008, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (8): 340-343.

所属专题： 园艺； 农业气象

• 林学 园艺 园林 • 上一篇    下一篇

鲁东南地区茶叶产量与气候条件的关系研究

朱秀红,马品印,成兆金,姚文军   

  • 收稿日期:2008-05-04 修回日期:2008-05-24 出版日期:2008-08-08 发布日期:2008-08-08

The Relationship between Tea Production and Climatic Conditions in the
Southeast of Shandong

Zhu Xiuhong, Ma Pinyin, Cheng Zhaojin, Yao Wenjun   

  • Received:2008-05-04 Revised:2008-05-24 Online:2008-08-08 Published:2008-08-08

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摘要： 鲁东南地区近年来茶叶总产量增加，但单产波动较大，研究气象条件与茶叶产量的关系很有必要。本文利用1992~2005年日照市三站气象资料，采用线性回归方法，找出茶叶产量和温度、降水、日照、冻土等12个气象因子呈显著相关特性。逐步回归后建立茶叶产量预测的数学模型，为多元一次回归方程Y=-972.12+191.39X1-219.92X2-37.06X3+8.06X4-66.26X5+3.83X6+5.07X7+8.56X8-0.29X9-0.05X10+9.71X11+
1.68X12，r为0.999987。经检验其平均偏差为5.02%，可见预测模型比较准确。

关键词: 化感作用, 化感作用, 化感物质, 化感机制

Abstract: The tea production increased in recent years in the southeast of Shandong Province, but the single yield volatile. Research on the relationship between climatic condition and tea production is necessary. Using the meteorological data of three stations in 1992-2005 in Rizhao, and linear regression, find out the temperature, precipitation, sunshine, frozen soil and other 12 meteorological factors were significantly related to tea production. The production forecast model of tea is established after gradually return. It’s a multiple regression equation,Y=-972.12+191.39X1-219.92X2-37.06X3+8.06X4-66.26X5+3.83X6+5.07X7+8.56X8-0.29X9-0.05X10+9.71X11+1.68X12, r equal to 0.999987. The average deviation is 5.02% by testing, it shows that’s accurate prediction model.

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