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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (20): 63-77.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-2709

所属专题： 园艺

• 农村产业结构与区域经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

北京市批发市场蔬菜价格引导关系研究

赵安平 王大山 肖金科 王晓东   

  • 收稿日期:2013-10-16 修回日期:2013-11-21 出版日期:2014-07-15 发布日期:2014-07-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家 “十一五” 科技支撑课题 “果蔬市场价格短期预测系统研究与示范” (2009BADA9B05)。

Prices of Vegetables Guiding Relationship Research in Beijing Wholesale

  • Received:2013-10-16 Revised:2013-11-21 Online:2014-07-15 Published:2014-07-15

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摘要： 依据蔬菜品种之间的相互引导关系开展市场调控或预警，是农产品市场预警的一种有效方式。基于北京市批发市场数据，研究黄瓜、番茄、圆白菜、土豆、茄子、小白菜、菜花、小辣椒、西葫芦等9种价格变化相关性较高的蔬菜在市场运行中的相互引导关系。建立VAR（向量自回归模型）模型，采用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解进行分析论证。结果表明，9种蔬菜价格之间至少存在单向的Granger因果关系；黄瓜、小白菜、西葫芦价格变化的冲击能够引起其他品种价格较为明显的响应；在不考虑自身贡献率的情况下，黄瓜价格变化对其他品种价格的贡献率是最高的，能够在较长一段时间内影响其他品种价格的变化，其中对茄子、小辣椒、土豆、西葫芦价格的贡献率最高均超过40%，西葫芦价格对茄子、土豆、小辣椒价格也有较高的贡献率，最高分别达到22%、19.83%和16.17%。

关键词: 黑龙江省, 黑龙江省, 农业生态污染, 农业生态补偿制度

Abstract: According to the guide relationship between the vegetable varieties to carry out market regulation or warning, it is an effective way of warning. Based on the Beijing wholesale market data, it researched the prices guiding relationship of 9 higher changing correlation vegetables, cucumber, tomato, cabbage, potatoes, eggplant, pakchoi, cauliflower, chili, zucchini, etc., and establishing VAR (vector auto regression model) model, using Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze and deliberate. The results showed that, there was at least one- way Granger causality between nine kinds of vegetables prices. The prices change impulse of cucumber, pakchoi and zucchini, can cause obvious response to other varieties. At the case of ignoring their own contribution rate, cucumber prices changes contributed the highest to other varieties, moreover lasting longer, which contributed more than 40% to eggplant prices, chili prices, potato prices, zucchini prices. Zucchini prices changes had higher contribution rates to the prices of eggplant, potato, and chili, and the highest to 22%, 19.83% and 16.17%.