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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (21): 100-105.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-3289

所属专题： 玉米

• 农学 农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

淮河流域夏玉米关键期水分盈亏时空变化分析

张建军   

  • 收稿日期:2013-12-17 修回日期:2014-01-21 出版日期:2014-07-25 发布日期:2014-07-25
  • 基金资助:
    科技部公益性行业（气象）科研专项“淮河流域主要农作物旱涝损失精细化评估技术”(GYHY201006027)，“夏玉米高产稳产气象保障关键技术研究”(GYHY201006041)。

Spatial-temporal Analysis of the Water Surplus Deficit Index for the Summer Corn’s Key Period in the Huaihe Basin

  • Received:2013-12-17 Revised:2014-01-21 Online:2014-07-25 Published:2014-07-25

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摘要： 为分析淮河流域夏玉米关键期水分盈亏状况及其变化特征，为政府决策部门和农业生产者及时合理地开展田间管理和农业生产提供科学依据，利用淮河流域121个站点1971-2010年的气象资料，通过对夏玉米关键期的需水量和有效降水量的估算，采用水分盈亏指数分析了淮河流域各夏玉米种植区的水分盈亏特征。结果表明：淮河流域各种植区夏玉米关键期的需水量呈显著下降趋势，下降速度呈现出南部高于北部、平原高于山区的特点；多年平均的夏玉米关键期需水量表现出明显的纬向空间分布特征，由北向南增加。各种植区夏玉米关键期的降水量不显著增加，多年平均的夏玉米关键期降水量大致呈现南部多于北部、山区多于平原的空间分布特点；各种植区有效降水量与降水量的空间分布特点一致。各种植区夏玉米关键期均存在不同程度的水分亏缺，但水分盈亏指数呈不明显的增加趋势，水分亏缺的程度有缓和的趋势；多年平均的水分盈亏指数空间分布特征为自西南向东北增加，中部平原区大部分地区水分亏缺严重。

关键词: 粒子群优化, 粒子群优化, 人工神经网络, 夏季降水, 预测方法

Abstract: To analyze the water surplus and deficiency in the summer corns’key period in the Huaihe Basin for providing a reference for authority's decision-making and field management and agricultural production, the characteristic of water surplus and deficit was analyzed by water surplus deficit index based on meteorological data from 121 sites during 1971-2010 in the Huaihe Basin. The results showed that there was an obvious downward trend of water requirement to summer corns’key period, and the descending rate in the south was faster than that in the north, while the rate in plaint was faster than that in mountain area. The annual average water requirement to summer corns’key period showed a clear characteristic that there was an increasing trend from north to south in the zonal space distribution. It was characterized that the precipitation of annual average water requirement in the south and plaint was greater than that in the north and mountain area, while with no significant increase on the precipitation during summer corns’key period. The effective precipitation was in conformity with that in spatial distribution. The average water surplus deficit index of each region showed a water deficit, but the tendency of yearly variation was increasing. The spatial distribution of the annual average water surplus deficit showed an increasing trend from south to north. The water deficit was much serious in the northern plain area.