欢迎访问《中国农学通报》,

中国农学通报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (7): 105-109.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb18090093

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

淮南1957—2017年夏季降水变化特征

颜 俊, 高正华, 赵 锐   

  1. 淮南市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2018-09-19 修回日期:2019-01-16 接受日期:2018-11-27 出版日期:2019-03-04 发布日期:2019-03-04
  • 通讯作者: 颜 俊
  • 基金资助:
    淮南市气象科研基金项目“沿淮中部夏季降水变化特征”(HNQX201707)。

Summer Precipitation in Huainan from 1957 to 2017: Variation Characteristics

  • Received:2018-09-19 Revised:2019-01-16 Accepted:2018-11-27 Online:2019-03-04 Published:2019-03-04

摘要: 利用淮南市1957—2017 年共61 年逐日降水资料,运用趋势分析法、Morlet 小波分析、Mann-Kendall 检验法和滑动t 检验,以期研究淮南夏季降水的年代际变化特征、周期特征和突变特征。结果表明:(1)淮南夏季降水年代际变化呈增多趋势;(2)暴雨量占比线性增长显著性高于暴雨日数和暴雨量,未来极端暴雨降水的概率正在增加;(3)淮南夏季降水量存在准2 年的主周期振荡,另外存在9 年、18年、32 年次振荡周期;(4)1967 年、2008 年前后淮南夏季降水呈现部分突变特征,但突变并不显著。Mann-Kendall 检验表明1967 年以来降水呈增多趋势,未来沿淮地区降水增多,强降水极端性增强,将对沿淮地区防洪及农业生产带来挑战。

关键词: 食用豆, 食用豆, 抗性, 研究进展

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data of Huainan from 1957 to 2017, we adopted trend analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall test and sliding t test to study the interdecadal variation, periodic characteristics and catastrophic characteristics of summer precipitation in Huainan. The results showed that: (1) the interdecadal variation of summer precipitation in Huainan had an increasing trend; (2) the linear increase of the proportion of rainstorm was significantly higher than that of the rainstorm days and rainstorm amounts, and the probability of future extreme rainstorm was increasing; (3) there was a quasi- two- year oscillation of the main period of summer precipitation in Huainan, and there were 9, 18 and 32 years oscillation period in addition; (4) the summer precipitation in Huainan in 1967 and 2008 showed a partial mutation which was not obvious. In the future, the precipitation and the extreme intensity of heavy precipitation along the Huaihe River will increase, which will bring challenges to flood control and agricultural production.

中图分类号: