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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (33): 256-262.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-0612

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

沈阳市不同时间尺度降水趋势及突变研究

孟鹏,安昕   

  1. 沈阳市气象局,南京大学大气科学学院;沈阳市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-09 修回日期:2014-03-09 接受日期:2014-07-17 出版日期:2015-01-08 发布日期:2015-01-08
  • 通讯作者: 孟鹏
  • 基金资助:
    沈阳市气象局“沈阳城区强降水精细化预报指标研究与预报系统建设”(20130405)。

The Study of Precipitation Trend and Abrupt Change of Different Time Scales of Shenyang

  • Received:2014-03-09 Revised:2014-03-09 Accepted:2014-07-17 Online:2015-01-08 Published:2015-01-08

摘要： 为服务地方工农业生产，提高降水预报准确率，研究降水时空分布及变化规律。以沈阳市东陵区观测站1951—2012年逐月降水量为基础，采用极比、标准偏差、气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall非参数检验法，分析了该地区年际及四季降水的稳定性、变化趋势及突变特征。结果表明：沈阳市自1951年以来，年际降水相对稳定呈波动下降趋势，其中1953—1982年为显著减少时期，气候倾向率为-84.822 mm/10 a，1983—2012年为缓慢减少时期，年际降水在1961年突变性减少，突变之后降水量平均减少146.2 mm。近年代春季降水极不稳定，降水序列有微弱增加，不存在气候突变点。夏季降水较稳定呈趋势减少，倾向率为-15.916 mm/10 a，在1961年突变性减少，突变之后平均减少120.0 mm。秋季降水极不稳定呈微弱减少趋势，没有明显突变点。冬季降水极不稳定有微弱增加趋势，1993—2012年增加显著，在2004年突变性增加，突变后平均增加14.7 mm。年降水、夏秋季降水在1982年之前降水明显减少，1983年之后变化相对平稳；冬春季在1996年之后表现出增加趋势。

关键词: 种质资源, 种质资源

Abstract: The study aims to analyze stability, change trend and abrupt change characteristics of yearly and seasonal precipitation. Ultimate ratio, standard deviation, climate inclination rate and Mann- Kendall nonparametric test were adopted based on the monthly precipitation from 1951 to 2012 of Dongling District observation station of Shenyang. The results showed that, yearly precipitation of Shenyang was relatively stable with fluctuation of descending trend since 1951. The period from 1953 to 1982 had significant decrease of precipitation and climate inclination rate was -84.822 mm per 10-year. The period from 1983 to 2012 had a slow decrease of precipitation. In 1961, yearly precipitation showed abrupt decrease and then precipitation averagely decreased 146.2 mm. In recent years, precipitation in spring was not stable and precipitation series showed slightly increase but no abrupt change. Precipitation in summer was relatively stable with a decreasing trend. Inclination rate was -15.916 mm per 10-year. In 1961, precipitation showed abrupt decrease and then precipitation averagely decreased 120.0 mm. Precipitation in autumn was very unstable with a slightly decreasing trend. It showed no abrupt change. Precipitation in winter was unstable with a slightly increasing trend. It showed obvious increase for approximate 20 years. In 2004, precipitation showed abrupt increase and then precipitation showed average increase of 14.7 mm. Before 1982, yearly precipitation and precipitation in summer and winter decreased obviously, after 1983, changes were relatively stable. After 1996, precipitation in winter and spring shows increasing trend.