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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (15): 265-274.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-1318

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

安徽省粮食生产波动分析及政策建议

曹淑华   

  1. 安徽省农业科学院经济与信息研究所
  • 收稿日期:2014-05-07 修回日期:2015-05-09 接受日期:2014-10-16 出版日期:2015-06-02 发布日期:2015-06-02
  • 通讯作者: 曹淑华
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省财政厅农业重点及新兴学科建设项目 “城镇化发展背景下安徽省粮食安全保障机制及支持性政策研究” (13A1425)。

Grain Production Fluctuation Analysis and Policy Suggestions in Anhui Province

  • Received:2014-05-07 Revised:2015-05-09 Accepted:2014-10-16 Online:2015-06-02 Published:2015-06-02

摘要： 为了系统分析安徽省粮食生产情况，为政府制定粮食生产政策提供参考，保障安徽省和我国粮食安全，以1978-2012年为研究时段，对安徽省粮食总产量、稻谷、玉米、小麦变化总体态势进行分析，并采用剩余法对安徽省1978—2012年粮食生产波动态势进行系统分析和深入探讨。研究表明，安徽省粮食总产量、稻谷、小麦和玉米产量都呈现不同程度的增加，随着人们饮食结构的变化，稻谷产量占粮食总产量的比重有所下降，小麦和玉米产量占粮食总产量的比重有所增加；安徽省粮食总量及稻谷、玉米、小麦三大粮食作物的波动情况存在的共同特征，即波动频繁，周期短，波幅大，都属于古典型波动，但在波动周期、波动幅度方面还是有所差异。波动周期相比较而言，安徽省粮食总产量的波动周期最为频繁，平均周期长度为2.81；在三大粮食作物中安徽省小麦产量的波动周期最为频繁，平均周期长度为2.88，稻谷的波动周期最短，为3.77。波动幅度相比较而言，在平均波动古都中玉米产量的波动幅度最大，为61.89%，小麦产量的平均波动幅度次之，为40.24%，稻谷产量的平均幅度第3，为23.56%，粮食总量产波动幅度最小，仅为19.77%。古典型波动相比较而言，粮食总产量波谷环比增长率均为负的有9个，占到了周期总数的82%；稻谷产量波谷环比增长率均为负的有9个，占到了周期总数的100%；小麦产量波谷环比增长率均为负的有8个，占到了周期总数的77.78%；玉米产量波谷环比增长率均为负的有10个，占到了周期总数的100%。结合粮食生产波动情况，提出了从耕地资源、水资源、科技、政策、劳动力等方面保持安徽省粮食生产稳产增长，减少粮食生产波动的针对性政策建议。

关键词: 抗病基因, 抗病基因

Abstract: In order to analyze the grain production situation in Anhui Province and provide reference for grain production policy-making, guarantee grain safety of Anhui and the whole country, the general situation of total grain yield, paddy rice, maize, wheat in Anhui Province during 1978-2012 was studied, and the fluctuation of grain production was deeply analyzed and discussed by the method of residue. The results showed that grain total yield, paddy rice, wheat and maize yield increased at different degrees in Anhui Province. With the change in people’s diet structure, the proportion of paddy rice declined, while the proportion of wheat and maize yield increased in total grain output; the fluctuations of total grain yield and three major grain crops paddy rice, maize and wheat in Anhui Province exist common features: frequent fluctuations, short cycle, large amplitude, all belong to the classical fluctuation. The fluctuation period of total grain yield in Anhui Province is most frequent with average period length of 2.81; among three grain crops, the fluctuation period of wheat yield is most frequent with average period of 2.88, and the fluctuation period of paddy rice is the shortest of 3.77. The fluctuation amplitude of maize, wheat, paddy rice and total grain yield are 61.89%, 40.24%, 23.56%, 19.77%, respectively. The wave trough negative growth of total grain yield, paddy rice yield, wheat yield and maize yield are 9, 9, 8, 10, respectively, accounting for 82%, 100%, 77.78% and 100% of total cycles. Combined with the grain production fluctuations, several suggestions for guaranteeing stable grain production, growth, reducing fluctuation were put forward from aspects of cultivated land, water resource, science and technology, policy and labor force.