欢迎访问《中国农学通报》，
中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (8): 273-279.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb14110015

所属专题： 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

准噶尔盆地南缘沙产业发展差异与影响的多元统计分析

周义才1,刘向晖1,李丕军2   

  1. (1新疆农业大学,乌鲁木齐 830052；２新疆林科院,乌鲁木齐 830001）
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-04 修回日期:2014-12-08 接受日期:2015-01-07 出版日期:2015-04-07 发布日期:2015-04-07
  • 通讯作者: 刘向晖
  • 基金资助:
    新疆农业大学产学研联合培养研究生项目“新疆沙产业发展调查报告”(xjaucxy-yjs-20131043)。

Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Differences and Influences of the Development of Deserticulture in the Southern Margin of the Junggar Basin

Zhou Yicai1, Liu Xianghui1, Li Pijun2   

  1. (1Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052; 2Xinjiang Research Institute of Forestry Science, Urumqi 830001)
  • Received:2014-11-04 Revised:2014-12-08 Accepted:2015-01-07 Online:2015-04-07 Published:2015-04-07

摘要： 为了研究新疆沙产业发展区域差异性，分析沙产业发展与环境、经济的关系，选取准噶尔盆地南缘的19个县市（兵团）作为主要研究对象，数据来源为实地调查和新疆统计年鉴、各地2013年统计公报等面板数据，筛选出当地沙产业发展、经济发展以及环境状况的16个典型指标，运用因子分析、聚类分析等方法，对调查区19个不同区域的沙产业发展进行了综合评价与分类比较，采用多元线性回归，分析了沙产业发展与环境、经济之间的相互关系。得出以下结论：（1）沙产业发展能够改善环境，拉动经济；（2）沙产业发展的焦点和难点为均衡性不足；（3）沙产业前期发展的短板是“挤出效应”。提出以下建议：（1）因地制宜，发展特色沙产业；（2）加大科技创新投入力度，合理规划投资规模。

关键词: 核桃, 核桃, 物候期, 经济性状, 主成分分析

Abstract: In order to study the regional differences of the development of deserticulture and analyze the relationship between deserticulture and environment and economy in Xinjiang, 19 counties were selected as the research object in the Southern margin of Junggar basin. The data were collected from field investigation, the “Xinjiang Statistics Yearbook” and the statistic bulletin of different regions in Xinjiang. 16 typical indexes were chosen to study the development of deserticulture, economy and environment. Using the factor analysis and the cluster analysis, this paper made a comprehensive evaluation and a classification by comparison the development of deserticulture in the 19 regions. Using the multiple linear regression analysis, this paper got the relationship between the development of deserticulture and economy and environment. The results showed that: (1) the development of deserticulture was able to optimize the environment, promote economic development; (2) the focus and difficulties of deserticulture were the unbalanced development; (3) the short board was the “crowding out” effect in the earlier stage of development. Finally, the author put forward the following suggestions: (1) relevant departments should adjust their measures to local conditions, and develop the characteristic deserticulture; (2) increase the investment on technology innovation, and plan a rational investment scale.