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中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (12): 158-162.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15110017

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

近40年山西东南部地区气温变化特征分析

程永明,张卉   

  1. 长治市气象局,长治市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-03 修回日期:2015-11-28 接受日期:2015-12-22 出版日期:2016-04-27 发布日期:2016-04-27
  • 通讯作者: 程永明
  • 基金资助:
    长治市气象局科学技术研究课题“山西省东南部地区气候变化特征研究”(CZKYBQH201501)

Characteristics of Temperature Variation in Nearly 40 Years in Southeast Shanxi Province

  • Received:2015-11-03 Revised:2015-11-28 Accepted:2015-12-22 Online:2016-04-27 Published:2016-04-27

摘要: 为了研究山西东南部地区气温变化特征趋势,笔者利用1971—2011 年山西东南部地区16 个气象站的气温资料,采用线性倾向估计法、滑动平均法及突变分析法等手段,分析了近40 年来山西东南部地区气温变化特征。时间分析结果表明:山西省东南部地区近40 年的年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温、年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温均呈上升趋势,其气温倾向率分别为0.27℃/10 a、0.29℃/10 a、0.36℃/10 a、0.18℃/10 a、0.46℃/10 a,且发生突变时间为1989 年;空间分析结果表明:山西东南部地区中部及东南部地区的升温幅度高于北部及东北部地区,总体呈上升趋势。

关键词: 旱作农业, 旱作农业, 栽培模式, 根冠调节, 水分消耗, 产量潜力

Abstract: The paper aims to study the characteristics of temperature variation tendency in southeast Shanxi Province. The authors used linear trend estimation method, moving average method and mutation analysis to analyze the temperature variation characteristics in nearly 40 years in southeast Shanxi Province based on the data of 1971-2011 from 16 stations. The temporal analysis showed that the annual average temperature, the annual average maximum temperature, the annual average minimum temperature, the annual extreme maximum temperature and the annual extreme minimum temperature were all on the rise, the tendency rate of the above temperatures was 0.27℃/10 a, 0.29℃/10 a, 0.36℃/10 a, 0.18℃/10 a and 0.46℃/10 a, respectively, the mutation time was 1989. The spatial analysis showed that the warming range of the central and southeastern region was higher than that of the northern and northeastern region, and had an overall rising tendency.