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中国农学通报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (17): 90-97.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb19010001

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

太原汛期短时强降水时空分布及影响因素

周晋红, 赵彩萍, 田晓婷   

  1. 太原市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-02 修回日期:2019-05-23 接受日期:2019-02-25 出版日期:2019-06-25 发布日期:2019-06-25
  • 通讯作者: 周晋红
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局预报员专项“副高影响型下三次暴雨过程的多尺度特征分析”(CMAYBY2018-011);山西省气象局面上项目“副高型暴雨中短 时强降水成因及落区对比分析”(SXKMSTQ20195626),“太原城市空气污染气象指数研究”(SXKMSFW20195625)。

Temporal-spatial Distribution of Short-time Heavy Rainfall in Taiyuan Flood Season and Its Influence Factors

  • Received:2019-01-02 Revised:2019-05-23 Accepted:2019-02-25 Online:2019-06-25 Published:2019-06-25

摘要: 应用6—9 月太原7 个国家气象观测站1980—2015 年小时降水和月平均气温、2008—2015 年太原63个区域站小时降水、以及ECMWF ERA-interim 月平均再分析资料等,采用气候趋势系数、M-K检验、合成分析及显著性t 检验等方法,分析太原短时强降水时空分布,探讨城市热岛强度变化及环流异常对太原短时强降水的影响。研究表明:近36 年来太原汛期年均短时强降水日数为3.3 天,具有明显的年代际变化;6—9 月短时强降水呈现快速增加、迅速减少的特征,且以20~30 mm/h雨强为主;≥40 mm/h的强降水主要出现在7 月上旬末到8 月上旬;一日中短时强降水在16—17 时最活跃。太原城区短时强降水明显多于北部山区,主要表现在7 月。2008—2015 年区域站观测发现短时强降水呈现6—7 月迅速扩展到全市、8 月向东部收缩、9 月迅速减少并分散出现在东部的特征。近36 年来太原汛期城市热岛强度显著增强、太原城市化主要向南扩张可能是城区南部短时强降水明显增多的影响因素。短时强降水偏多年7 月,500 hPa 上西西伯利亚为高脊区,贝加尔湖为槽区,华北大部位势高度偏低,冷空气偏强,且西太平洋副高比偏少年明显偏西,从而使太原对流有效位能明显偏大,造成太原短时强降水偏多发生;偏少年则相反。该研究可为短时强降水预报和研究、城市防灾减灾提供有益参考。

Abstract: Based on the data of hourly precipitation and monthly average temperature from June to September of 7 national meteorological stations from 1980 to 2015 and hourly precipitation of 63 automatic weather stations(AWS) from 2008 to 2015, and the monthly average reanalysis data of ECMWF ERA-interim, the temporal-spatial distribution of short-time heavy rainfall of flood season in Taiyuan was analyzed, and the influences of the variation of urban heat island (UHI) intensity and the anomalies of circulation background were studied by using climatic trend parameter, M-K test, composite analysis and t-test methods. The results showed that the days of short-time heavy rainfall had obvious inter-decadal variation in recent 36 years with annual mean days of 3.3 d; the days of short-time heavy rainfall increased rapidly and decreased sharply from June to September with concentrated intensities mainly of 20-30 mm/h; the ≥ 40 mm/h heavy rain concentrated between the late of the first ten-day period of July and the first ten-day period of August; 16:00—17:00 was the most active period in a day for short-time heavy rainfall. There were more short-time heavy rainfalls in the urban area than that in the mountainous areas, mainly in July. The observation from the automatic weather stations in Taiyuan during 2008-2015 found that the short-time heavy rainfall in Taiyuan extended rapidly to all areas of Taiyuan from June to July, and in August shrunk to eastern areas, and in September decreased sharply and occurred dispersedly in eastern areas. The enhanced intensity of UHI in recent 36 years and the southward expansion of urbanization maybe the influential factors for the increase of short-time heavy rainfall in southern urban area in Taiyuan. In July of the more short-time heavy rainfall years, there was a ridge in west Sibarian, and a trough in Lack Baikal, the geopotential height was lower in north China on 500 hPa with stronger cold air, and the western pacific subtropical high leaned significantly to west compared with the less years, therefore the CAPE values were higher in Taiyua, then the short-time heavy rainfall occurred more frequently; The less years were just the opposite. This study can provide references for forecasting and research on shot-time heavy rainfall and urban disaster prevention and relief.

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