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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (19): 112-119.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb19010012

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

江苏省主要气象灾害时空分布及演变特征分析

项瑛1,张余庆2,许琪1,卢鹏1,艾文文3   

  1. 1.江苏省气候中心 南京;2.淮阴师范学院;3.江苏省气象服务中心
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-03 修回日期:2019-02-20 接受日期:2019-02-25 出版日期:2019-07-08 发布日期:2019-07-08
  • 通讯作者: 项瑛
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展计划“气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害的变化规律和机理及其影响与对策”(2013CB430200)；公益性行业（气象）科研专项 “多源测风资料融合技术研究及其在风能资源评估中的应用”(GYHY201306050)；江苏省气象局重点项目“江苏省强降水和强降温过程定量评估与预测” (KZ201606)。

Temporal and Spatial Distribution and Evolution Characteristics of Major Meteorological Disasters in Jiangsu Province

  • Received:2019-01-03 Revised:2019-02-20 Accepted:2019-02-25 Online:2019-07-08 Published:2019-07-08

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摘要： 根据1983～2017年江苏省35a气象台站观测资料、相关灾情数据及国民经济数据,本文选取灾害损失最大的强对流、暴雨洪涝、干旱、台风和雪灾五种气象灾害作为主要研究对象,分析了江苏省主要气象灾损事件的时空变化特征。研究表明,江苏省暴雨洪涝主要发生在夏季(6～8月),集中于7月份,高值区主要位于淮北大部、里下河地区及沿江苏南西部地区；强对流灾害主要出现在春夏季(3～8月),分布区域集中在江苏沿海和里下河地区,以盐城和南通地区最为严重；干旱灾害发生持续时间长,一年四季均有发生,范围分布较广,总体呈现出东南轻西北重的趋势,大值区位于沿淮淮北东部地区及宁镇扬丘陵地区；台风灾害主要发生在夏季(6～8月),灾害影响范围具有典型的沿海大于内陆的特征；雪灾主要发生在冬季(12～次年2月),1月最多,发生的高频区域呈无规律零星分布。本研究采用直接经济损失和死亡人口两项指标来表征气象灾情的演变,结果显示累计死亡人口总体呈下降趋势,从20世纪80年代至今,因气象灾害死亡人数总体下降了83%。直接经济损失呈明显上升趋势,1998年之后经济损失约为之前的1.38倍。总体而言,气象灾害损失率呈波动下降趋势,2010年以来的地区灾损率大致在0.1%左右。

关键词: 巨尾桉, 巨尾桉, 造林效果, 固氮菌, 解磷菌, 解钾菌

Abstract: Abstract: According to the observation data of meteorological stations and stations, relevant disaster data and national economic data of Jiangsu province in the past 35 years from 1983 to 2017, In this paper, five meteorological disasters, including severe convection, rainstorm, flood, drought, typhoon and snowstorm, with the largest losses, are selected as the main research objects, analyzed the spatial and temporal variations characteristics of major meteorological disaster events in Jiangsu province. According to the research, rainstorm and flood occurred mainly in summer (June to August), mainly in July. The high-value area is mainly located in the northern part of Huaibei, lixia river area and the western part of southern Jiangsu along the river. Severe convection disasters mainly occur in spring and summer (March to August), The distribution area is concentrated in the coastal areas of Jiangsu province and lixia river region, with Yancheng and Nantong region being the most serious. The drought disaster lasts for a long time, occurs in all seasons of the year, and was a wide range of distribution. Generally showing the trend of light weight in the southeast and heavy weight in the northwest. The great value area is located along the Huaihe Huaibei east area and Ningzhen Yang hilly area. Typhoon disaster mainly occurs in summer (from June to August), and its impact range is typically larger in coastal areas than in inland areas. Snow disasters mainly occur in winter (December to February of the next year), with the largest number in January, the occurrence of high frequency area is irregular sporadic distribution. In this study, direct economic loss and death population were used to characterize the evolution of meteorological disasters. The results showed that the cumulative death population showed an overall downward trend. From the 1980s to now, the total number of deaths due to meteorological disasters decreased by 83%.Direct economic losses showed a significant upward trend, with the economic losses after 1998 about 1.38 times as much as before. In general, the loss rate of meteorological disasters fluctuates and declines, and the regional loss rate since 2010 is about 0.1%.