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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2022, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (14): 147-154.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2021-0762

所属专题： 水稻

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

粮食主销区水稻生产格局演变与影响因素的空间扰动研究——以广东为例

杨震宇1(), 方伟1(), 黄丽芸2   

  1. 1广东省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,广州 510640
    2广东省农业科学院,广州 510640
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-10 修回日期:2021-10-24 出版日期:2022-05-15 发布日期:2022-06-07
  • 通讯作者: 方伟
  • 作者简介:杨震宇,男,1990 年出生,广东中山人,博士,主要从事农村区域发展研究。通信地址：510640 广东省天河区金颖路31 号,E-mail： 15017584755@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    广东省哲学社科基金项目“广东省县域粮食生产格局演变、驱动因素及安全能力保障研究”(GD19CYJ03);广东省自然科学基金项目“广东省粮食生产空间分异、动态演变及非均衡生产潜力”(2020A151501912);乡村振兴战略专项资金（农业科技能力提升）——提升市县农业科技能力促进广东水稻产业发展创新模式研究(TS-1-6-14);产业经济与都市农业团队项目(202124TD);广东省农业科学院中青年学科带头人培养计划(金颖之星)

The Spatial Disturbance of the Evolution of Rice Production Pattern and Influencing Factors in Main Grain Sales Area: A Case of Guangdong

YANG Zhenyu1(), FANG Wei1(), HUANG Liyun2   

  1. 1Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information, Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Guangzhou 510640
    2Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Guangzhou 510640
  • Received:2021-08-10 Revised:2021-10-24 Online:2022-05-15 Published:2022-06-07
  • Contact: FANG Wei

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摘要：

为了研究中国粮食生产受经济发展挤占的过程。本研究以全国最大粮食主销区广东省为例,利用空间自相关分析与SDM回归方法对121个县级区域进行空间计量分析,探讨近20年粮食生产变化与区域演变。结果表明：广东省粮食产量空间分布并非随机,而是呈现出逐渐增强的空间集聚性。粮食生产区域变迁受到劳动力转移与资本化的双重驱动,一方面,粮食生产依然是劳动力密集型产业,农业劳动力对粮食产出水平的支撑仍然是目前广东粮食主产区得以存在的主要条件;另一方面,资本进入农业通过推拉作用使粮食产业发生转移。本研究认为要重视粮食生产的地域格局特征对粮食生产政策制定的影响,一方面要科学划定粮食产销县,另一方面要审慎划定粮食和重要农产品生产功能区。

关键词: 挤出效应, 波动系数, 空间自相关, 空间扰动, 产销补偿

Abstract:

To study the process of China’s grain production being squeezed by economic development, this study took Guangdong Province, the country’s largest grain sales area, as an example, and used spatial autocorrelation analysis and SDM regression method to conduct spatial econometric analysis of 121 counties, to explore the grain production change and regional evolution in the past 20 years. The results showed that the spatial distribution of grain production in Guangdong was not random; instead, it presented a gradually increasing spatial agglomeration. Regional changes in food production were driven by both labor transfer and capital. On the one hand, food production was still a labor-intensive industry, and the support of agricultural labor to the grain output level was still the main condition for the existence of the main grain production areas in Guangdong; on the other hand, capital’s entry into agriculture had caused geographic transfer of the food industry through push and pull. This study believes that we should highlight the influence of grain production pattern on policy making, and scientifically designate grain production and marketing counties while carefully plan functional areas for the production of grain and important agricultural products.

Key words: crowding out effect, fluctuation coefficient, spatial autocorrelation, spatial disturbance, production and sales area complementarity

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