关键词: 气候变化, 宁夏, 马铃薯, 全生育期, 气候适宜性, 评价

Abstract:

Potatoes represent the primary crop in Ningxia, serving as a pivotal industry for rural revitalization in the region. Leveraging agricultural meteorological data and daily weather records from potato planting areas in Ningxia, this paper employs a climate suitability assessment model. A spatiotemporal analysis of the climate suitability characteristics for potatoes in Ningxia is conducted. The findings reveal that, examining the comprehensive suitability index ratios for different decades during various developmental stages, the past decade demonstrates a relatively balanced average suitability index across different growth stages, followed by the 1970s. In contrast, other decades exhibit significant variations in suitability index ratios during different growth stages, with one or more stages showing lower suitability. Poor coordination of light, temperature, and water is identified as a climatic factor contributing to the pronounced inter-decadal fluctuations in potato yields. Under the backdrop of climate change, with increased heat resources, early-maturing plastic-mulched potatoes can be sown slightly later. Later flowering helps avoid high-temperature drought during flowering while coinciding with increased precipitation. Provided that the heat resources are sufficient to ensure maturity, sowing slightly later can also be beneficial for increasing yield. Spatially, the extremely suitable areas for potato cultivation include the entire territories of Haiyuan County and Xiji County, as well as most regions of Longde County, Jingyuan County, and Yuanzhou District, except for the high-altitude Liupan Mountain ridge, and the western part of Pengyang County. These regions have relatively favorable precipitation conditions, and although the sunshine is slightly less, it can still meet the growth requirements of potatoes. The suitable areas are in the majority of Tongxin County and the eastern part of Pengyang County. However, Tongxin County has less precipitation, which restricts the growth of potatoes and makes its climatic resources inferior to the previous region. The relatively suitable area is in the southern part of Yanchi County, where precipitation is scarce and droughts are common. The northern part of Yanchi County is an unsuitable area. The research results have scientific guiding significance for actual potato production and can provide scientific support for the layout and quality improvement of the potato industry.

Key words: climate change, Ningxia, potato, whole growth period, climate suitability, evaluate