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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (29): 91-98.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0350

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

玉溪烤烟种植气候适宜性评价与区划研究

钟燕华1,2(), 蔡旭璋3, 林芷叶3, 景元书1(), 陈继珍1, 张涛1   

  1. 1 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/南京信息工程大学， 南京 210044
    2 漳州市长泰区气象局， 福建漳州 363900
    3 漳州市气象局， 福建漳州 363000
  • 收稿日期:2025-05-12 修回日期:2025-08-22 出版日期:2025-10-15 发布日期:2025-10-22
  • 通讯作者:
    景元书，男，1969年出生，江苏镇江人，教授，博士研究生，研究方向：气候资源与农业气象灾害、农业遥感应用。通信地址：210044 江苏省南京市宁六路219号 南京信息工程大学应用气象学院，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    钟燕华，女，1999年出生，福建漳州人，助理工程师，硕士，研究方向为作物气象、气候品质影响。通信地址：210044 福建省漳州市长泰区气象局，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    云南红塔烟草集团有限责任公司项目“气象因子对烟叶产质量的影响研究及应用”(S-6019001); 中国科学院数字地球重点实验室开放基金项目项目“冬小麦病害监测预警与气象资料耦合方法”(2018LDE003); 南京信息工程大学大学生创新训练项目“基于气候年型的烟叶产量与品质的精细化预测研究”(XJDC202210300494)

Evaluation of Climatic Suitability and Regionalization Research on Tobacco Cultivation in Yuxi

ZHONG Yanhua1,2(), CAI Xuzhang3, LIN Zhiye3, JING Yuanshu1(), CHEN Jizhen1, ZHANG Tao1   

  1. 1 Collaborative Innovation Center of Meteorological Disaster Forecasting Warning and Assessment/Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
    2 Zhangzhou Changtai Meteorological Bureau, Zhangzhou, Fujian 363900
    3 Zhangzhou Meteorological Bureau, Zhangzhou, Fujian 363000
  • Received:2025-05-12 Revised:2025-08-22 Published:2025-10-15 Online:2025-10-22

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摘要：

烤烟种植对气候条件高度敏感，为合理利用气候资源、探究气候因素对烤烟生长发育的影响，本研究针对玉溪地区开展烤烟气候适宜性区域划分，旨在为烤烟种植布局优化提供科学支撑。本研究基于玉溪各乡镇常规气象观测数据及地理信息数据，结合当地独特的气候条件与烤烟产区的生产实际情况等，采用德尔菲法和客观赋权权重法结合，筛选玉溪气候适宜性评价指标并确定权重，并构建基于模糊数学的隶属函数模型，量化气候指标对烤烟适宜性的影响；借助GIS平台实现气象要素空间化，结合细网格推算模型定量估算气候适宜性评价指标值，实现玉溪地区烤烟种植适宜度的精细化气候区划。结果发现：以玉溪市市辖区为中心，烤烟种植气候最适宜区主要分布在玉溪中西部以及东北部地区；适宜种植区主要分布在玉溪中部、北部以及西南边界地区；次适宜种植区分布较为分散，玉溪各县区均有分布；不适宜种植区分布较为集中，主要分布在元江到新平河谷地带的低海拔区域和新平县西部边界地区、易门县东部、华宁县中部、玉溪市市辖区北部的高海拔区域。各区划指标细网格推算模型精度较高（空间分辨率可达到30 m×30 m），区划结果与玉溪地区烤烟种植现状吻合度较高，验证了方法的科学性与结果的实用性。本研究通过多方法融合（德尔菲法、客观赋权、模糊数学、GIS空间分析等）实现了烤烟气候适宜性的精细化区划，不仅明确了玉溪不同区域的气候适宜性等级，其结果还可为玉溪地区应对未来气候变化、优化烤烟种植区域布局提供科学决策依据，具有重要的生产指导价值。

关键词: 烤烟, 玉溪, GIS, 气候适宜性, 评价, 区划指标, 隶属函数

Abstract:

Flue-cured tobacco planting is highly sensitive to climatic conditions. In order to make rational use of climatic resources and explore the influence of climatic factors on the growth and development of flue-cured tobacco, this study carried out the climatic suitability regionalization of flue-cured tobacco in Yuxi area, aiming to provide scientific support for the optimization of flue-cured tobacco planting layout. Based on conventional meteorological observation data and geographic information data from towns across Yuxi, and its unique climatic conditions and the actual production situation of its tobacco-growing areas, the evaluation indicators for climatic suitability were screened and their weights were determined using the Delphi method and an objective weighting method. Membership function models for different climate indicators were established using fuzzy mathematics statistics. On the GIS platform, meteorological elements were spatialized, and a fine-grid calculation model was comprehensively applied to quantitatively estimate the values of the climatic suitability evaluation indicators, thereby achieving refined climatic zoning that reflects the suitability of flue-cured tobacco cultivation in Yuxi. The results indicated that the most suitable areas for tobacco cultivation were mainly distributed in the central-west and northeast parts of Yuxi, centered on the urban district; suitable planting areas were primarily located in the central, northern, and southwestern border regions; less suitable areas were scattered across all counties and districts of Yuxi; unsuitable areas were relatively concentrated, mainly in low-altitude areas of the Yuanjiang to Xinping river valley and the western border region of Xinping County, the east part of Yimen County, the central part of Huaning County, and the high-altitude north part of Yuxi’s urban district. The fine-grid calculation model for each zoning indicator demonstrated high accuracy, with a spatial resolution of 30 m × 30 m. The zoning results showed strong agreement with the current distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yuxi, providing a scientific basis for the region to respond to future climate change and optimize the layout of tobacco cultivation zones.

Key words: flue-cured tobacco, Yuxi, GIS, climatic suitability, evaluation, zoning indicator, membership function