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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2010, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (15): 310-313.

所属专题： 水稻

• 植物保护 农药 • 上一篇    下一篇

浙江天台晚稻褐飞虱长期运动规律与ARIMA模型研究

杨廉伟 汪恩国 丁灵伟 干才连 陈将赞 戴以太   

  • 收稿日期:2010-02-02 修回日期:2010-06-05 出版日期:2010-08-05 发布日期:2010-08-05
  • 基金资助:

    浙江省台州市重大课题“稻褐飞虱灾变暴发因子及生态防控技术研究”

Long-term movement cycles of brown planthopper on late rice in Tiantai county of Zheijing province

  • Received:2010-02-02 Revised:2010-06-05 Online:2010-08-05 Published:2010-08-05

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摘要：

根据天台1969-2008年田间褐飞虱发生监测情况，阐述了褐飞虱长期运动规律及其运行周期，分析造成褐飞虱种群周期性变化的周期特性与主要影响因素，分析表明褐飞虱种群数量变化符合多项式函数模型， Y（t）= X2=C0+C1×X+C2×X2+C3×X3+...+C15×X15， X={1，2，3，┅┅，n}，并创建了褐飞虱种群数量变动的时间序列ARIMA(2,1,1)模型：Y(t+l)=0.0659+0.0616851Z(t+l-2)+ e(t+l) + 0.3802611e(t+l-1) ，应用此模型回测，吻合率达98.6%，具有很高的精度；从而预示今后1段时期褐飞虱仍处高位运行状态，应加大防控力度，保障生产安全。

关键词: 苦荞, 苦荞, 过敏蛋白, 共表达, 包涵体, 复性

Abstract:

Based on the monitor system on occurrence of brown planthopper（Nilapavata lugens-Stal）in late rice fields in Tiantai county of Zheijing province from 1969 to 2009 years, long-term movement cycles of brown planthopper were determined. The main factors affected on cyclical changes of brown planthopper populations were analyzed in the paper. The polynomial function model related to the amount changes of the insect populations was created by the formular: Y (t) = C0 + C1 * X + C2 * X2 + C3 * X3 +...+ C15* X15, X = (1,2,3, ……, n), and the time series ARIMA model: Y (t + l) = 0.0659 +0.0616851 Z (t + l-2) + e (t + l) +0.3802611 e (t + l-1) was also postulated，Application of this modelfor back-tested, consistent rate of 98.6%, with high accuracy .It is predicted from the models that high occurrence of brown planthopper will stay in a period in the future. It is suggested that we should increase prevention and control efforts in order to ensure safety in our rice production.