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中国农学通报 ›› 2011, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (4): 253-260.

所属专题: 园艺

• 农村产业结构与区域经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

蔬菜批发市场和零售市场价格变化及传导机制研究

赵安平 赵友森 王川 王晓东   

  • 收稿日期:2010-12-13 修回日期:2010-12-23 出版日期:2011-02-10 发布日期:2011-02-10
  • 基金资助:

    “十一五”科技支撑项目“果蔬市场价格短期预测系统研究与示范”

Research on Vegetable Price Changes and Transmission Mechanism between Wholesale and Retail Markets

  • Received:2010-12-13 Revised:2010-12-23 Online:2011-02-10 Published:2011-02-10

摘要:

本文以北京市为例,以大白菜、黄瓜和菠菜为研究对象,基于蔬菜批发市场和零售市场价格数据,利用相关系数、变异系数、批零比分别分析了蔬菜批零市场价格的各自变化规律,得出批零价格相关性强,零售市场价格较批发市场稳定,3种蔬菜批发与零售价格比值均维持在2倍的关系。通过建立VAR模型,运用Granger因果检验表明,大白菜批零价格互为Granger因果关系,而黄瓜和菠菜则是从批发到零售价格单向引导。利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解进一步分析,不同蔬菜品种批零市场发挥的作用存在一定差异,但是总体来看批发市场或批发商在批零价格传导中发挥主导作用,是价格变动的中心环节,零售商相对处于弱势地位。在此基础上提出完善市内农产品流通机制,规范批发市场经营,引导零售商在市场竞争中发挥更大作用。

关键词: 分类, 分类

Abstract:

This paper explored the wholesale and retail vegetable prices transmission mechanism, at the base of prices of cabbage, cucumber and spinach in Beijing markets. And using correlation coefficient, coefficient of variation, the ratio of wholesale and retail prices, this paper analyzed the price change rules in both wholesale and retail market, and also explored the relationship between wholesale and retail prices, with the establishment of VAR model, Granger causality test, impulse response functions and variance decomposition. The results demonstratd that when wholesale and retail prices obtain a strong correlation, retail market prices were more stable than those of wholesale, and the ratio relationship of the three kinds of vegetables between wholesale and retail prices maintains at 2 times. The cabbage price of wholesale and retail had Granger causal relationship with each other, while prices of cucumber and spinach were in one-way guide from the wholesale to retail price. Impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis showed that there were some differences in the role for wholesale and retail markets of different varieties of vegetables, but generally, wholesale market or wholesalers in the wholesale and retail price transmission played a leading role, which was the central link of price changes, and retailers remained at a relatively weak position. Therefore, the city should put forward a sound agricultural products circulation mechanism, regulate the wholesale market operations, and guide retailers to play a greater role in the competitive market.