关键词: 拟合, 拟合

Abstract: In order to study the climate change character in Jimunai since 1961, based on observation of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from Jimunai meteorological station, Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet transformation methods were used to analyze the variation of temperature and precipitation during 1961-2012, meanwhile, the responses of temperature and precipitation during 2021-2050 under SRES A1B scenario in Jimunai County was analyzed by using PRéCIS. The results showed that: (1) the annual mean temperature and precipitation during 52 years increased with the rate of 0.4℃ per 10 years and 10 mm per 10 years, abrupt change occurred obviously in 1988 and 1986,dominant periodic oscillation performed 20 years and 18 years, respectively; (2) in terms of seasonal temperature, the increment was autumn>spring>summer>winter, and statistical significance wasn’t presented in winter, in terms of seasonal precipitation, only winter presented obvious increasing trend; (3) PRECIS might reproduce seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation in Jimunai during 1971-2000, cold bias and positive bias were mainly performed in temperature and precipitation, respectively; (4) under SRES A1B scenario, the annual mean temperature and precipitation during 2021-2050 might vary with the rate of 0.75℃ per 10 years and -5.6% per 10 years. Compared with baseline, the annual mean temperature might increase 2.8℃ and precipitation would decrease 9.5%.