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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (15): 173-182.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-2387

所属专题： 小麦； 农业气象

• 农学 农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对伊犁河谷冬小麦产量的影响

普宗朝 张山清 徐文修 李景林 王荣晓   

  • 收稿日期:2013-09-06 修回日期:2013-10-16 出版日期:2014-05-25 发布日期:2014-05-25
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金“新疆农业气候时空变化特征及对绿洲种植制度潜力影响及响应研究”(31260312)；新疆气象局科研项目“气候变化对新疆农业热量资源的影响及其区划”(201127)，“新疆红枣种植精细化气候区划”(201312)。

Impact of Climate Change to Winter Wheat Yield in Yili River Valley of Xinjiang

  • Received:2013-09-06 Revised:2013-10-16 Online:2014-05-25 Published:2014-05-25

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摘要： 为了明确气候变化对伊犁河谷冬小麦产量的影响，以伊犁河谷冬小麦主产区的伊宁、霍城、巩留、新源4县为例，在对1980—2011年各县冬小麦生长季气温、降水量变化特征分析的基础上，探讨冬小麦不同生长发育时段气候条件对产量形成的影响，进而对近32年气候变化对冬小麦产量影响的利弊进行分析。结果表明：就多年平均而言，伊犁河谷冬小麦生长季气候条件对小麦生长发育和产量形成是较适宜的，但气候的年际间差异对冬小麦产量的影响仍十分明显，由其导致的冬小麦产量的年际间波动可达-1507~745 kg/hm2。冬小麦生长季内不同时段各气候因素对产量的影响差异较大，气温的影响，在冬小麦越冬前表现为正效应，越冬期影响很小，但返青后为负效应。降水量对冬小麦的影响在生长季各时段大多表现为不显著的正效应，生长季总降水量对冬小麦产量的影响，除新源、巩留县通过了P=0.05的显著性检验外，伊宁、霍城县未达到显著水平。在全球气候变化背景下，1980—2011年，伊犁河谷各地冬小麦生长季平均气温分别以0.503~0.653℃/10年的倾向率呈极显著的上升趋势，降水量分别以3.828~18.948 mm/10年的倾向率呈不显著的增多趋势。气候变暖对冬小麦有利也有弊，但总体来看弊大于利，其中，冬前的播种至分蘖期气温升高对小麦较有利，越冬期气温变化对小麦影响不大，但返青至成熟期气温升高将对小麦产量形成一定的不利影响，其中，抽穗开花至成熟期的不利影响更为明显。降水量增多对提高小麦产量具有一定积极意义，但对灌溉农业区的伊犁河谷来说，其直接影响大多不显著。

关键词: 体外成熟, 体外成熟

Abstract: In order to understand the effect of climate change on the yield of winter wheat in Yili valley, we conducted the analysis of temperature and precipitation variations during the growth period of winter wheat between 1980 and 2011 and the investigation of the effects of climatic factors on yield formation, trying to find out the advantages and disadvantages of climate change to winter wheat yield over the last 32 years in Yining, Huocheng, Gongliu and Xinyuan Counties of Yili River Valley. The results showed that climatic factors were fitting for winter wheat over the average of 32 years, but while the effects of inter-annual variation in climatic factors were diverse, the yields influenced ranged from -1507~745 kg/hm2. The influences of temperature and precipitation to winter wheat were different in the various growth periods, temperature were positive in seedling before winter, insignificant in winter, and negative thereafter, and heading to mature were the key period of temperature effect winter wheat yield. Precipitation had mostly insignificant while positive effect in various growth periods of winter wheat, and the effects of rainfall in the whole growth period on yield were significant (P=0.05) in both Xinyuan and Gongliu County, but not in Yinin and Huocheng County. With global warming, the mean temperature in winter wheat growing season showed significant increasing trend by the rate of 0.503℃/10 years to 0.653℃/10 years in four counties, and precipitation have a non-outstanding increase trend by the rate of 3.828 mm/10 years to 18.948 mm/10 years respectively. Recent 32 years, climate change on winter wheat production has advantageous aspect, also have adverse effects, but overall the disadvantages outweigh the advantages. Mean temperature increasing is favorable to winter wheat in the period of sow to tiller, in wintering has little effect, but will cause obvious adverse effects on yield in the period of turning green to mature. Precipitation increasing to improve winter wheat production has certain positive significance, but the directly affect had no significant correlation with wheat yield mostly.