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中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 256-264.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-2612

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

江苏省物流业对GDP影响的多元回归模型分析

武进静   

  1. 上海海洋大学
  • 收稿日期:2014-09-27 修回日期:2014-11-13 接受日期:2014-12-08 出版日期:2015-03-20 发布日期:2015-03-20
  • 通讯作者: 武进静
  • 基金资助:

Empirical Analysis of Relationship between Logistics and Economic Growth Based on the Multiple Linear Reression model

  • Received:2014-09-27 Revised:2014-11-13 Accepted:2014-12-08 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-03-20

摘要: 为了研究江苏省GDP与物流业之间的经济增长关系,以江苏省1986-2012年全省主要经济指标:人均GDP、进出口总额、物流业增加值、固定资产投资额、港口货物吞吐量作为研究对象,运用Eviews软件对江苏省GDP进行回归分析。并建立了物流业增加值、港口货物吞吐量影响因素在内的江苏省GDP的预测模型。同时,通过建立物流业增加值、港口货物吞吐量的模型,对这些影响因素进行预测,从而对江苏省GDP进行预测。实证分析表明物流增加值和港口货物吞吐量与江苏GDP之间有明显的线性关系,因此这两者的持续快速健康发展将对该省GDP的持续快速健康发展起积极的促进作用,最终结果显示该模型具有较好的预测效果,可为江苏省制定经济发展目标提供依据和参考。

关键词: 强冰雹, 强冰雹, 成因分析, 中小尺度辐合线, TBB资料

Abstract: This paper is mainly in studying the relations between the economic growth of GDP and the logistics industry in Jiangsu Province. It focus on the whole province’s major economic index among 1986-2012 which including per capita GDP, total export-import volume, value-added of logistics industry, fixed investments, cargo throughput of port. It uses Eviews software to do the regression analysis of Jiangsu Province GDP and establishes the prediction models which affect it, such as value-added of logistics industry, cargo throughput of port etc. After making prediction about these above influencing factors, this paper also makes prediction to Jiangsu Province GDP. The fact shows that there is an obvious liner relation between value-added of logistics industry, cargo throughput of port and Jiangsu Province GDP. Therefore the continuous rapid healthy development of these two factors makes an active promotion to the expansion of Jiangsu Province GDP. The final result revels that the models possess better forecast effect and can provide basis and reference to Jiangsu Province when it makes out its own economic development.