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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (26): 200-209.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15050121

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

快速台风“海鸥”强度、路径特点及成因分析

陈伟斌,黄荣成,屈梅芳,赵金彪   

  1. (广西气象台,南宁 530022）
  • 收稿日期:2015-05-22 修回日期:2015-06-16 接受日期:2015-06-25 出版日期:2015-09-23 发布日期:2015-09-23
  • 通讯作者: 陈伟斌
  • 基金资助:
    广西自然科学基金项目“广西持续性暴雨中尺度特征诊断分析与预报技术研究”(2011GXNSFA018011)。

Analysis of Intensity, Track Characteristics and Causes of Fast Moving Typhoon ‘Kalmaegi’

Chen Weibin, Huang Rongcheng, Qu Meifang, Zhao Jinbiao   

  1. (Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022)
  • Received:2015-05-22 Revised:2015-06-16 Accepted:2015-06-25 Online:2015-09-23 Published:2015-09-23

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摘要： 为了进一步认识西北行台风活动特点成因，为此类台风预报提供参考，利用1°×1° NCEP再分析资料、卫星云图资料及实时定位定强数据，对台风“海鸥”的路径、强度特征及成因进行分析。结果表明：“海鸥”活动主要受副高外围气流操纵，不同阶段受不同层次引导气流影响。引导气流强度越大台风移速越快，其波动可能是台风路径摆动的重要原因。高海温是“海鸥”生成及发展的基础条件；“海鸥”移动下游存在弱垂直风切变区域、西南季风与越赤道气流卷入、水平风场不对称分布是“海鸥”强度加强的重要原因；同时指出“海鸥”不同阶段，感热和潜热所起作用不同。此外进一步探讨了“海鸥”成熟期仅维持台风强度的可能原因。

关键词: 南亚松, 南亚松, 嵌套数据, 种源/家系, 苗期测定, 聚类分析, 云南

Abstract: This paper aims to further understand the causes of the north-west line typhoon and provide a reference for its forecast. Based on 1°×1° NCEP reanalysis data, satellite infrared cloud image data, and real-time positioning typhoon intensity data, the intensity, track characteristics and causes of typhoon “Kalmaegi” were analyzed. The results showed that “Kalmaegi” was driven by subtropical high’s peripheral airflow, different phases were influenced by the steering flow from different levels. The greater the steering flow was, the faster the typhoon moved. In addition, the intensity changes of the steering current might also be an important reason for the typhoon path swing. The downstream of “Kalmaegi” with weak vertical wind shear zone, the involving of southwest monsoon and the cross-equatorial flow, and the asymmetrical distribution of wind field were reasons for intensified “Kalmaegi”. The study also showed that sensible heat and latent heat played different roles in different phases. In addition, this paper further analyzed the possible reasons for the strength of “Kalmaegi” remaining at typhoon grade at the mature stage.