阴雨寡照灾害对云南烤烟的种植风险预测

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2021-0228

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

阴雨寡照灾害在未来将具有“空间+时间动态性”的变化特征。笔者根据烤烟种植适宜性指标和阴雨寡照等级指标,利用1981—2010年连续30年的逐日气象观测资料和2021—2050年全球气候模式HadGEM2-ES的RCPs排放情景预估结果,结合灾害系统理论,采用多元回归、“距平逼近”插值和栅格运算等方法,分析阴雨寡照灾害对云南烤烟生长的影响。结果表明,伴随气候变暖,云南烤烟种植制度将改变,种植区增加,阴雨寡照灾害发生的风险提高。阴雨寡照灾害较高风险区域增加,而中等以下风险区域减少,低等级向高一等级风险转化,且灾害风险中心主要表现为北抬东扩。不同年代际不同排放情景下,烤烟阴雨寡照各级风险有明显差异,RCP8.5情景下风险变化剧烈,RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下风险变化相似。云南烟区的阴雨寡照灾害风险变化表现为时间和空间上的增加和差异,并由此提出,为合理规避气象灾害风险,应加大农业基础设施建设。

关键词: 气候变化, 排放情景, 烤烟, 阴雨寡照, 灾害风险, 云南

Abstract:

To study the effects of future disaster risk changes of overcast and rainy days with ‘spatial and temporal dynamics’ on flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan, based on flue-cured tobacco planting suitability index and overcast and rainy grade index, we adopted the approaches of multivariable regression, interpolation and raster calculating in combination with the observed meteorological data from 1981 to 2010 and the RCPs emission scenario forecast results under global climate patterns HadGEM2-ES from 2021 to 2050. The results show that the planting pattern of flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan will be transformed as the weather changes in the future. The suitable areas will expand with the warming climate, while the disaster risk of overcast and rainy days will grow at the same time. The high-risk areas will be increased, while the low-risk areas and medium-risk areas will be narrowed. In the future, the low- risk areas will be transformed into a higher level, and disaster centers will expand northward and eastward. The risk of overcast and rainy days of flue-cured tobacco at all levels will be significantly different under different decadal periods and emission scenarios. The risk will change dramatically under the RCP8.5 scenario, while RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios will have similar risk changes. In the future, the disaster risk change of overcast and rainy days of flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan will show temporal and spatial increase and difference. To avoid meteorological disasters, agricultural infrastructure construction should be enhanced.

Key words: future climate change, emission scenario, flue-cured tobacco, overcast and rainy days, disaster risk, Yunnan

中图分类号:

S572
S162.54

韩敏, 杨鹏武, 何雨芩, 胡雪琼, 朱勇. 阴雨寡照灾害对云南烤烟的种植风险预测[J]. 中国农学通报, 2022, 38(4): 69-75.

HAN Min, YANG Pengwu, HE Yuqin, HU Xueqiong, ZHU Yong. Prediction of the Disaster Risk of Overcast and Rainy Days on Flue-cured Tobacco Planting in Yunnan[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2022, 38(4): 69-75.

图/表 8

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指标	最适宜	适宜	次适宜	不适宜
7月平均气温/℃	20.0~22.0	19.0~23.5	18.5~26.5	<18.5或>26.5
7—8月日照时数/h	≥250	≥220	≥180	<180
4—9月降水量/mm	550~1250	450~1250	450~1400	>1400或<450

指标	最适宜	适宜	次适宜	不适宜
7月平均气温/℃	20.0~22.0	19.0~23.5	18.5~26.5	<18.5或>26.5
7—8月日照时数/h	≥250	≥220	≥180	<180
4—9月降水量/mm	550~1250	450~1250	450~1400	>1400或<450

等级	持续阴雨日数(R)/d	烤烟受害特征
轻	3≤R≤6	烤烟长势缓慢
中	7≤R≤14	徒长纤弱、叶大而薄
重	R>14	出现早花或变黄甚至死亡

等级	持续阴雨日数(R)/d	烤烟受害特征
轻	3≤R≤6	烤烟长势缓慢
中	7≤R≤14	徒长纤弱、叶大而薄
重	R>14	出现早花或变黄甚至死亡

致灾因子危险性D	多元回归方程	R²
D₁	D₁=493.92+0.26r-21.86lat+0.061h	0.68
D₂	D₂=1393.81+0.27r-15.11lot+5.87lat+0.034h	0.72