基于GIS的宜春市双季稻种植气候条件变化分析

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0780

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本研究旨在揭示气候变化背景下宜春市双季稻种植气候条件的演变规律。基于该市10个国家气象站1961—2020年的气象资料，选取与双季稻生长密切相关的7项关键气候指标（日平均气温稳定通过10℃初日至日平均气温稳定通过20℃终日期间≥10℃积温、日平均气温稳定通过10℃初日至日平均气温稳定通过20℃终日期间日数、日平均气温稳定通过10℃初日、日平均气温稳定通过20℃终日、主汛期降水量、夏季日最高气温≥35℃日数、秋季降水量），对比分析1961—1990与1991—2020年的变化特征。结果表明：宜春市热量条件显著优化，1961—2020年≥10℃积温与适宜生长期日数均呈递增趋势，空间上均表现为“东南高（多）、西北低（少）”，1991—2020年高值区范围扩大、低值区缩小；日平均气温稳定通过10℃初日提前5~10 d，日平均气温稳定通过20℃终日延后，热量利用时间拓宽。降水条件区域分化明显，主汛期一半区域降水量减少、一半区域递增，1991—2020年高值区范围扩大；秋季70%区域降水量递增、30%区域递减，1991—2020年高/低值区范围缩小、次高/次低值区扩大，降水分布趋均。夏季高温风险上升，90%区域日最高气温≥35℃日数递增，1991—2020年高值区向北部延伸且范围扩大。这些变化对双季稻种植结构调整、抗逆品种选育及灾害风险管理提出了差异化挑战与适应性机遇。

关键词: 双季稻, 气候条件, 适应性区划

Abstract:

In order to clarify the evolutionary rules of climate conditions for double-cropping rice cultivation in Yichun under the background of climate change, this study used meteorological data of 10 national meteorological stations in Yichun during 1961-2020, and selected 7 key climatic indicators closely related to the growth of double-cropping rice (including ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and number of days during the period from the first day when the daily average temperature stably reached 10℃ to the last day when the daily average temperature stably reached 20℃, first day and last day of the period, precipitation in the main flood season, number of days with daily maximum temperature ≥35℃ in summer, and precipitation in autumn). The variation characteristics of these indicators were analyzed by dividing the study period into two 30-year periods (1961-1990 and 1991-2020). The results showed that: the caloric conditions in Yichun were significantly optimized. From 1961 to 2020, both the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and the number of days in the suitable growth period showed an increasing trend, and spatially, both presented a pattern of “high (abundant) in the southeast and low (scarce) in the northwest”. From 1961 to 2020, the scope of high-value areas expanded while the scope of low-value areas narrowed. The first day when the daily average temperature stably reached 10℃ advanced by 5-10 days, and the last day when the daily average temperature stably reached 20℃ was delayed, which extended the time for heat utilization. The regional differentiation of precipitation conditions was obvious, in the main flood season, precipitation decreased in 50% of the areas and increased in the other 50%, and the scope of high-value areas expanded in 1991-2020; in autumn, precipitation increased in 70% of the areas and decreased in 30%, and in 1991-2020, the scopes of both high-value and low-value areas narrowed while the scopes of sub-high-value and sub-low-value areas expanded, indicating that the precipitation distribution tended to be more uniform. The high-temperature risk in summer increased, the number of days with daily maximum temperature ≥35℃ increased in 90% of the areas, and in 1991-2020, the high-value areas extended to the north and their scope expanded. These changes pose differentiated challenges and adaptive opportunities for the adjustment of double-cropping rice planting structure, breeding of stress-resistant varieties and disaster risk management.

Key words: double-cropping rice, climate condition, adaptability zoning

章起明, 郭水连, 欧阳冬梅. 基于GIS的宜春市双季稻种植气候条件变化分析[J]. 中国农学通报, 2026, 42(3): 133-143.

ZHANG Qiming, GUO Shuilian, OUYANG Dongmei. Variation Analysis of Climate Condition for Double-cropping Rice in Yichun Based on GIS[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2026, 42(3): 133-143.

图/表 7

图1. 宜春市1961—2020年日平均气温稳定通过10℃初日-日平均气温稳定通过20℃终日期间≥10℃积温情况

图2. 宜春市1961—2020年日平均气温稳定通过10℃初日-日平均气温稳定通过20℃终日期间日数情况

图3. 宜春市1961—2020年日平均气温稳定通过10℃初日情况

图4. 宜春市1961—2020年日平均气温稳定通过20℃终日情况

图5. 宜春市1961—2020年主汛期（4—6月）降水量情况

图6. 宜春市1961—2020年夏季（6—8月）日最高气温≥35℃日数情况

图7. 宜春市1961—2020年秋季（9—11月）降水量情况

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